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Long Term PowerRatings
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Stocks are mixed today despite a better than expected manufacturing report hitting the street. Market reaction to events seems detached from the traditional expectations. In other words, stocks have been difficult to get a handle on recently.
The epic battle of the free market vs. government's guiding hand is still raging at full force. These chaotic times demand proven stock picking tools that are beyond the scope of traditional fundamental and technical analysis. Our Long Term PowerRatings are one such dynamic tool, proven over 13 years of research in most market conditions. The studies resulted in an easy to use, numerical rating system that can pinpoint those stocks that truly have the best odds of top performance over the longer term. Stocks that have earned a 10 Long Term PowerRating have been proven to have a 81% chance of being higher one year later, those with a 9 rating possess a 79.1% chance of being higher one year later. Conversely, those with the lowest 1,2, or 3 ratings have shown to simply be too volatile, thus risky for prudent long term investment.
Due to the extreme volatility of the low rated stocks, of course, several will outperform, sometimes returning many fold percentages. However, 65% have been proven to lose money over a year time period. In fact, they lost an average of 5% over the year timeframe. Our studies clearly indicate that conservative, long term investors should avoid stocks with low Power Ratings and build a portfolio of those with high ratings. Let's take a closer look at several of the upgrades today:
Becton Dickinson (BDX | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) - A global medical technology company that was just upgraded from a 4 to a 5 Long Term PowerRating. The firm is located in Franklin Lakes, New Jersey and employs over 28,000 people worldwide. They just announced fiscal first quarter results with an 18% increase in diluted EPS and a 1.6% increase in revenues. The CEO, Edward Ludwig, provided strong guidance into 2009 and increased targets indicating confidence. Technically, the shares have been in a strong uptrend since November 24th, 2008. Several days ago, an attempt was made to pierce the 200-day SMA with a wide intraday trading range failing on the attempt. Price is above the 50 day SMA, but still below the 200 day which is presently resting at $77.20/share.

Owens & Minor (OMI | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) — Another medical company on the upgrade list today. They have provided strong guidance into 2009, expecting 10 to 12% revenue growth combined with aggressive strategic initiatives. Fourth quarter, 2008 year end data will be released on February 5th. Price has been uptrending since mid January and is above the 50-day SMA. However, $41.00/share has acted as resistance, recently shoving shares off of the steady up move.

HMS Holdings (HMSY | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) - The third health care related company that was upgraded today. This firm is a leader in the integration of benefits and programs for government health care programs. They had a very strong 3rd quarter with a 30% Revenue increase and a 44% gain in EPS. Price has been uptrending since October 26th in a stair step like fashion. Shares are trading above both the 50 and 200-day SMA's and appear to be consolidating around the $30.00/share level.

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David Goodboy is Vice President of Business Development for a New York City based multi-strategy fund.