Lookout for the FOMC minutes later today

Monday's session finished mostly unchanged, but showed continued weakness in between the bells. A quick test of Friday highs soon sold off to and/or below Friday lows before recovering to nearly par. With all of the pending price action catalysts directly ahead, it may very well be the last session that closes unchanged this week.

ES (+$50 per index point)

S&P 500 futures lifted into R1 and Friday high's dual resistance, then sold off below S1 and likewise Friday lows. The lift back to unchanged at the close posts another "doji" session of indecision.

Highly profitable swing lower move in the middle, some early chop and late-day reversal action capped the day.

ER (+$100 per index point)

Russell 2000 futures also wedged thru a sideways roll before the modest break lower midday. Sideways roll along Friday lows and S1 value dual support soon squeezed back to where they opened at the close. Very tradable drop, for sure. Also a couple of points to be gleaned in the final hour pop as well.

ES (+$50 per index point)

Daily chart of the S&P shows continued weakness at 50dma and 62% resistance. As we noted in here yesterday, 1300 would now be modest resistance and it marked the session high on Monday. Until they close well above 1300 on a daily chart basis, downside has the continual nod.

ER (+$100 per index point)

Russell 2000 held an inside day, closing on top of support and holding high ground at the end. Until this one closes a daily candle/bar below 740, bullish bias persists.

Summation

Market view remains at a point of critical decision. Big caps, techs and semis look weak to bearish. Small caps, transports and a few other remain 100% bullish. This temporary divergence is just that... temporary. The picture will clear sooner than later.

As for today, treat it like a quasi-FOMC event. The past three or four FOMC minutes release events have brought greater price movement in stock indexes and FX markets than the FOMC rate decisions did. Go figure! Expect morning movement, probable midday lull and possible afternoon explosion past 2:00pm EST if the knee-jerkers interpret Fed speak in what they deem to be favorable language.

Trade To Win
Austin P
www.CoiledMarkets.com
(Online video clip tutorials... open access)

Austin Passamonte is a full-time professional trader who specializes in E-mini stock index futures, equity options and commodity markets. Mr. Passamonte's trading approach uses proprietary chart patterns found on an intraday basis. Austin trades privately in the Finger Lakes region of New York.