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Meet The Systems Trader

By Dean Hoffman | TradingMarkets.com
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Greetings! I'd like to take this opportunity to introduce myself. My name is Dean Hoffman, and I have been involved with the futures industry for over 15 years now. I started in the late 80's as a commodity broker and eventually ended up running my own brokerage firm in the heart of Chicago's financial district. Unfortunately, during my many years of dealing with customer accounts, I witnessed the vast majority of futures traders losing money. Some have put the figure as high as 95% and my experience would tend to confirm this. Because my livelihood was very tied into the success that my clients experienced, I decided there must be a better way.

As a result, in the early 90's I began what ended up being a full-blown 10-year research project into commodity trading systems. Over the years, I completely immersed myself in every aspect of system trading and development. I started out by developing simple single market-based systems and then evolved to more complex portfolio-based systems and system combinations. I tested much of what was available in the public domain (without satisfaction) and then created my own proprietary indicators and methods. I also did extensive research into the critical areas of money management and position sizing.

If you think about it, the Turtles were the first mechanical system traders. For those who may not know of them, they were a small group of individuals that were trained by legendary traders Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt. Dennis and Eckhardt had a bet about whether or not they could train somebody to trade just as successfully as they could. Keep in mind, Dennis is reported to have made several hundred million dollars starting with less than a few thousand dollars. Furthermore, what the Turtles were taught was a very specific mechanical trading system, developed by Dennis and Eckhardt.

The experiment was an overwhelming success! Many of the Turtles went on to become some of the world's most successful and sought-after traders. In fact, many of them are now in the public spotlight far more than their mentors, Dennis and Eckhardt. In the minds of many, this proved that it is possible to develop and be successful with mechanical futures trading systems.

In the weeks and months to come, I will be presenting valuable information about system design and related concepts. Here are just a few things we'll be looking into:

  • Optimization and its potential pitfalls. Much has already been written about the dangers of curve fitting. Yet, many traders who develop their own systems continue to make the same mistakes, repeatedly. I will explain to you what the most common errors are, and how to properly use historical data in order to develop robust systems with long-term viability.
  • Position sizing. This is a hugely under-explored area for system traders. I will show you how to gain an edge by using systems that adjust position size, based upon key variables.
  • Money management. Trading systems are much more than entries, stops and exits. To be viable, they must fully integrate money management and trade management through every phase of the trading process. I will show you how to do this.
  • Creating trading systems for different time frames. Here, I will discuss what kinds of considerations must be factored into intraday vs. position trading systems.
  • What are the best tools to use to develop and test systems? I’ll show you exactly what to look for and what I see missing in some of the most popular platforms.
  • Worst-case analysis. One of the most powerful yet least known ways of developing a strong system is to test it on the basis of its worst drawdown period. This is the only way to scientifically judge the real performance of a trading system.
  • System combinations. Hedge fund managers use multiple systems that are uncorrelated. I’ll demonstrate what this means and why this is important for private individual traders to implement.

In addition, I want to invite you to email me directly and ask me any questions you like on trading system development. I will do my very best to help you build your knowledge and improve your results.

Thank you for taking the time to get introduced to both the new column and myself. I hope you will find it extremely informative and interesting. Feel free to start asking questions right away. E-mail me at deanh@tradingmarkets.com.

Dean Hoffman


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