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These Charts Will Show You When Not To Trade

By Dave Floyd | TradingMarkets.com
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Well, the charts are beginning to speak to us, metaphorically speaking. Yesterday's close shows that the market is under a bit of pressure, how much more it will decline is anyone's guess.  But, just as the media and everyone are triumphing the new bull market, the storm clouds that were there the whole time are now being noticed (see yesterday's article for a summary).

Naturally, given that every trader I know and respect is looking for a reversal here, also leads me to believe that we may all be mistaken.  It is too common currently for everyone to be talking about the reversal.  Just a contrarian point of view.  Time will tell.

In the meantime, as traders, we need to grind out our living.  It has been pretty damn boring to say the least.  A flurry of activity in the morning then ....nothing.  So with that let's toss up a few charts so that when you see them you will know not to trade.

Notice how on the first chart all you have is price bar consolidation?  Where is the range, the fluidity?  It is non-existent.  If you think you can trade this, you are kidding yourself.

On this chart (yesterday's opening) at least there are some pockets where there is range expansion, most noticeably at point X.  To be frank, I did a whopping 2 trades yesterday, seriously, 2.  And, I can say with a fair degree of certainty, that based on the stocks I was watching, Wal Mart (WMT) and Citigroup (C), that I made the most of what was available.  Were there other set-ups?  Yep.  Did they fit a decent risk/reward profile given market conditions?  No way.  Not for me at least.  But, at the end of the day I walked away with money in my pocket, albeit a marginal sum, but enough to show up today and play the game again.

Also, if you refer back to yesterday's action on a 5-minute chart:

You will notice just how stubborn the 917-18 level was.  It did a great job of preventing some good selling.  At the time, I was just aware that these levels were pivot numbers.  However, after taking a look at the daily chart, it became obvious just how critical these levels were.

So, for today, look for some good trading opportunities in this area.

Support/Resistance Numbers for S&P and Nasdaq Futures

S&Ps Nasdaq
952 1153
945-46 1139-41
939-40 1135
933 1127
927 1121*
922* 1110-11
922* 1100-02
916-17 1094
912 1084
905* -

 

 

 

 

 

 

My new trading service, "Dave Floyd's Trading Room," through which I offer live real-time audio commentary, analysis and alerts is now available. I encourage you to check it out. Click here for more information.

As always, feel free to send me your comments and questions.

Dave Floyd

P.S. I also have a new trading module available which teaches how to trade my HVT style through bar-by-bar chart simulations. Click here for information about the module.


 


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