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If You Want To Play In This Type Of Environment, Try This

By Dave Floyd | TradingMarkets.com
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It has been a while, -- nearly three years -- but the buy-the-pullback crowd is in full force. Naturally, if this action continues, the tape will eventually loosen up. In the meantime, stocks are moving higher in the face of every reason they should not. Sounds like the beginning of a "new" bull market. While I certainly do not know if that is the case, it does explain why the tape is so tepid.  There are still too many non-believers, and until that changes, the tape will continue to defy logic and meander higher at a snail's pace. Be patient, a break is inevitable.

As I have continued to stress, the only thing we can do is sit and wait patiently, you will find a couple of setups each day.  Remember to always identify areas where the S&P's have been exhibiting 3+ point "bursts" in the direction of the trend.  Additionally, the bars that make up that move should be spaced out, in a stair-step pattern like in the chart below.

Notice the same action on this one as well

Now, on the flip side, there will be many times when the market will move 3+ points, however not only will it take longer, but the action will be labored.  Look at the chart below:

Yes, the travel range was 3+ points, but each bar lost momentum at some point before moving higher. This type of back and fill action is tough for most HVT'ers to tolerate. Also, look at the stochastics, unlike most fluid moves there is also no range expansion in the stochastics.  The action here is a constant crossing back and forth, this indicates chop and indecisiveness.  If you want to play in this type of an environment, reduce your share size, push out the time frame and look for specific patterns.

Support/Resistance Numbers for S&P and Nasdaq Futures
S&Ps Nasdaq
965* 1198
960 1189
951 1175-1177*
945-946* 1166
941 1153*
935 1145
933 1140
930 1129
925 1117-1118*

My new trading service, "Dave Floyd's Trading Room," through which I offer live real-time audio commentary, analysis and alerts is now available. I encourage you to check it out. Click here for more information.

As always, feel free to send me your comments and questions.

Dave Floyd

P.S. I also have a new trading module available which teaches how to trade my HVT style through bar-by-bar chart simulations. Click here for information about the module.


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