Here Is The Current Probability Of A Fed Rate Cut

The markets are mixed midday as the world braces for a countdown to war. All three major averages are trading in narrow ranges above their 50-day moving averages as they stand ground on recent gains. On the economic front, disappointing housing starts data had the price action sputter in early trading, and later today at 2:14 pm ET the results of an FOMC meeting will be released. Currently the fed funds are trading with a 34% chance of a rate cut.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU.X | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) is +0.03%  at 8,144.71. The S&P 500 ($SPX.X | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) is -0.25% at 860.60. The Nasdaq ($COMPQ | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) is -0.34% at 1,387.50.

Top sectors are oil service ($OSX.X | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), +1.97%, gold and silver ($XAU.X | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), +1.89%, biotechnology ($BTK.X | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), +1.63%, and broker/dealers ($XBD.X | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), +1.36%.

Lagging sectors are software ($GSO.X | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), -0.87%, oil ($OIX | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), -0.71%, and banks ($BIX.X | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), -0.59%.

In economic news, housing starts disappointed with 1.622 million vs. an expected 1.728 million, and building permits came in at 1.786 million vs. an expected 1.745 million.

The 10-year U.S. Note is -065 at 114 110.

The dollar is +0.21 at 101.52.

Gold is +2.10 at 339.30.

Crude Oil  -2.93 at 32.00.

Volume is at 740,234,000 on the NYSE, and at 830,693,000 on the Nasdaq.

Doughnut retailer Krispy Kreme (KKD | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), -4.72% at 33.30, posted fourth-quarter earnings $0.01 ahead of expectations with profits of $0.19 per share. Profits were down 32% from a year ago.

Catalog retailer Williams-Sonoma (WSM | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), -4.68% at 21.16, beat their fourth-quarter earnings expectations by $0.01 with profits of $0.67 per share, though said earnings for the fiscal first-quarter will come in lower than expected.

Oil and gas operations company Conoco Philips (COP | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), -1.75% at 50.11, has been downgraded by First Albany to "sell" with a new price target of $30.

Mobile home maker Winnebago Industries (WGO | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), -15.83% at 25.05, has missed its second-quarter earnings expectations by $0.02 with profits of $0.64 per share.

Transportation company C.H. Robinson (CHRW | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), -3.69% at 32.11, has been downgraded by Morgan Stanley to "underweight" from "equal-weight."

Also in the transportation business, Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), -0.76% at 35.25, has had coverage initiated on it by Morgan Stanley at "underweight."

Semiconductor equipment maker Applied Materials (AMAT | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), +1.23% at 13.291, announced it will eliminate 2,000 jobs to lower costs. The company is the world's largest maker of computer chip production equipment.

Food processing company Kraft Foods (KFT | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), -2.42% at 28.98, has been upgraded by Banc of America to "buy" from "neutral."

Household and personal product maker Procter and Gamble (PG | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), +1.49% at 86.77, has raised its third-quarter guidance to 13-14% earnings per share growth vs. a consensus of 11-13%.

Railroad stocks have had their estimates reduced by UBS Warburg, which believes it will be a tough first-quarter for the sector. Companies with reduced estimates are: (UNP | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), +0.91% at 55.23, (BNI | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), +0.69% at 24.71, (CSX | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), -0.39% at 27.82, (NSC | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), -1.22% at 18.56, and (KSU | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), -0.44% at 11.40.

Computer hardware company Tech Data (TECD | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), +4.22% at 23.95, beat its fourth-quarter earnings per share by $0.03 with profits of $0.58 per share.

danielb@tradingmarkets.com