Forex Top 3 Chart Setups: EUR/USD, and Everything Aussie
Mark Whistler is the founder of www.WallStreetRockStar.com and is the author of multiple books on trading. Mark’s newest book, The Swing Trader’s Bible – co-authored with CNBC/Fox News regular guest Matt McCall – will be on shelves in late summer, 2008. In addition, Mark also writes regularly for TraderDaily.com and Investopedia.com.
Top Chart Setup #1: EUR/USD Channel Chop Chop
If you’ve been trading the EUR/USD lately, you know there’s been more chop in recent action than an old episode of Walker: Texas Ranger. We could see even more over the next week until the ECB announces the decision on interest rates on Thursday, July 3. Here’s the personal opinion from your semi-beloved author…
If the ECB raises rates, expect a riot, as the event would likely add a few more bullets into the gun Trichet and company have been playing Russian Roulette with the Euro Area economy over the past year. The simple fact of the matter is that ECB has likely been bluffing, or jawboning as my three favorite students from the recent Elite Trading Seminar put it.
But the slash in euro chutzpah could actually come before the actual ECB meeting, when Euro Area GDP is announced on Tuesday. The simple fact of the matter is that the long-term inflation outlook remains in check, despite the short-term picture. Raising rates now, would be a short-term reactionary over-action that would be a kick in the face to extended GDP growth.
The GDP number next week, coupled with the ECB having to come to the table with its bluff could easily cause the euro to fall back into lows of the relevant range (all of that was code for: reversal looming).
Top Chart Setup #2: Double Pop Top Stop
Out of our three potential reversal charts today, this is the one that may actually be the most risky, here’s why: In chart #3, the fact of the matter is the pound has a higher interest rate than the U.S. Dollar, and thus, more ability to attract buyers. However, at the end of the day, if the AUD/USD is not able to post a new high soon, traders may want to take serious note of the possible “double top” on the present chart. Really, it’s about as simple as that.
Top Chart Setup #3: Aussie Reversal Maybe
Thinking that the Australian Dollar could actually lose ground against other currencies is something that many traders haven’t considered over the past few weeks. However, it might be time to start thinking “paradigm shift.”
Looking at the GBP/AUD, we see that the pairs recently stalled out at lows and has since, been attempting to put in an inverted head and shoulders bottom. Right now, the GBP/AUD is sitting right at descending resistance of the relative trend, while also trading at the 40-period moving average on the daily chart. Here’s the thing, the interest rate differential aspect of the trade still demands that the Aussie should hold high-court over the pound.
However, investors may be inferring that the Australian economy may be on the eve of a hiccup, much like the New Zealand Dollar. If such happened, Australian interest rates could be quickly lowered, thus fueling a larger reversal. It’s too early to call an all-out shift, but it is something that traders will want to keep an eye out for.
