From 1990 to 1997, Kevin Haggerty served as Senior Vice President for Equity Trading at Fidelity Capital Markets, Boston, a division of Fidelity Investments. He was responsible for all U.S. institutional Listed, OTC and Option trading in addition to all major Exchange Floor Executions. For a free trial to Kevin’s Daily Trading Report, please click here.
Commentary for 12/21/12
The “FC” Ponzi scheme political nonsense continues with no resolution, but there was some excitement and trading opportunity this morning as the House lacked the votes for the so called Plan B last night, and the SPX had a significant discount opening to 1426.62 on the opening bar, versus the previous 1443.69 close. The SPX futures were -23 points when I checked at 1:00AM this morning on a “head” call for you non-civilians.
The SPX bounced from the 1426.62 low, with the -1.5 VB at 1426.87, and hit 1433.69 as I am writing this commentary, so it has been a good trade for extended volatility band day traders accelerated by the news and hype. What they failed to mention is that the Senate, which is controlled by the Democrats, wouldn`t even vote on Obama`s proposal, so what does that tell you about the state of the US fiscal policy.
Today is a Triple Witch expiration followed by a 1:00PM NYSE close on Christmas Eve [Monday], and also the Holiday on Christmas Day. That leaves four more trading days into year-end which is positive so far, and the Fed and the Generals will do what they can to keep it that way.
Going into today the market was S/T-O/B with the 4MA`s of the VR and BR at 69 and 65. There is also a negative 5 RSI divergence in the SPX, and also the SPX New High ratio which is indicative of the smaller number of SPX stocks accounting for the recent gains.
However, based on Bernanke`s artificial and manipulative market, the real market mover is the NY Fed desk playing games with the futures when need be to keep the Ponzi scheme going. Regardless of the technical considerations the market is essentially on hold subject to the FC results, none of which will solve any of the longer term deficit issues as this administration continues to shrink the private sector in every way that Obama can.
The last two SPX reversals in June and November have similar symmetry, so I have included a review of those lows on the SPX daily chart. The exception is that the reversal gain from the 1343.365 low is now +7.8% to a 1448 high this Wed, and the 5 RSI negative divergence, as the SPX went from 1438.59 to 1448, went from 82.97 to 78.97.
The 6/4/12 low at 1266.74 had a positive 5 RSI divergence, was at the 377DEMA, and was -10.9% in 43 TD`s [5 x 8.6]. More importantly, it was also a fixed 8.6 cycle time symmetry zone. The fixed cycle date is 2009.30 and they are all listed in the manual [Markets Trade with Geometric Symmetry]. However, the Pi cycle is also measured from significant Tops and Bottoms.
The calculation is 2009.30 +3.14 years = 2012.44, .44 x 365 = 161 CD, and 12/31/11 +161 CD = 6/9/12. Remember, you are anticipating high probability zones confirmed by other technical evidence, but very often the reversal or acceleration will occur on a specific symmetry date.
The 1343.35 low on 11/16/12 was also at the 377DEMA, O/S, and -8.9% in 43 TD`s [5 x 8.6], in addition to hitting the 1343.41 .618RT to 1266.74 from 1475.51. It is not about the pundits because most of them are wrong at every significant trading turn, so learn how to recognize these turns yourself using the geometric symmetry. My daily Trading Service anticipates all of these key dates well in advance.
The risk/reward for the equity market going forward into 2013, regardless of what token deal is made in Washington is ugly for longer-term Equity Investors.
You can download for free 6 of my calculators that I use to measure price and time symmetry at www.geometricmarkets.com, and my new 200+ page manual “Markets Trade With Geometric Symmetry” is also available for purchase on the site. It doesn`t matter whether you are a trader, investor, portfolio manager, or analyst, because this product will enable you to pinpoint high probability reversal or acceleration zones in any market, including Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, and Currencies.
Have a Merry Christmas in addition to a Happy and Safe New Years!
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