Click here to access this weekend’s Big Saturday Interview: the second half of our conversation with Sam Savage, author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty.
Sam Savage is a Consulting Professor of Management Science and Engineering at the Stanford University School of Engineering. He maintains a website at http://www.flawofaverages.com, which includes a number of software tools to help readers visualize many of the concepts in the book, including applying distribution strings in simulations. Try out the software and learn more about Sam Savage’s work at probabilitymanagement.org.
In the first part of our interview with Sam Savage, he outlined the general difficulties we experience when it comes to forecasting even well-understood events accurately to say nothing of anticipating, avoiding or managing risk. Here in the second half of our conversation, Sam Savage talks more specifically about the interactive technological tools – from computer simulation software to distribution strings – and how they can help traders, investors and business owners do a better job of representing the vast array of uncertainties and probabilities encountered every day in the financial and business markets.
Sam Savage is presenting an upcoming seminar on this research, which he refers to as 21st century risk modeling. The first event is scheduled for New York City on March 19th, with other seminars scheduled for April 8th in San Francisco and April 28th in Chicago. Visit his website at 21st Century Risk for more information.
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