The SPX finished +0.1% for May on below average volume, which is the norm these days, but the Central Bank manipulated market continues to get marked up higher with a cycle high daily close of 2130.82 [5/21] following the 2130.72 intraday high 5/20]. The index has essentially ranged all of 2015 and is +0.2% YTD. So far the SPX is -0.5% MTD closing 6/4 at 2095.84, and below the 50DEMA at 2102.3, with the next inflection point at 2083.9 and the 200DEMA at 2041.9.
The SPX has advanced +220% from the 667 bear market low [3/6/09], or a +3.2 bagger. However, this central bank equity bubble is out of control and so is the Fed, therefore the risk reward, in my opinion, obviously favors a significant reduction in portfolio equity exposure. One way is to stay in any SPX index fund if that is your primary, and use the SPX 12 month EMA less 1%-2% as an escape hatch trigger.
The arguments are that the Fed is in so deep that it can`t halt the ponzi scheme because all of that “printing money” has failed to generate the expected growth and job employment, so it will continue to massage [falsify] the data, while changing the adjusted components until it fits their narrative of the moment to postpone the inevitable next bubble disaster that it has created.
The next major Economic Confidence Model 8.6 year cycle date is 2015.75 [Martin Armstrong], which is the first week in Oct. The SPX high monthly close in this 75 month bull cycle is 2107, which is the 1.618 [2105] fib extension of the 2007 bear market from 1556-667, so it is also a significant Fibonacci symmetry juncture, with a major negative monthly momentum divergence [5 RSI].
Are things so bad that the Fed is unable to allow free markets again, or is the US just another 3rd world market now? They must be, or else the Fed would have cut the cord by now.
Kevin Haggerty