Follow Your Rules And Take The Trade
What Thursday’s Action Tells
You
The negative market action yesterday had
broader
participation as NYSE volume expanded to 1.69 billion shares, with the
volume
ratio 26 and breadth expanding to -1201 without any program knives down. The
volume ratio has gone 72, 76, 25 and 26 yesterday, so the noise is high.
That
leaves the 4 MA of the volume ratio dead neutral at 50 and the same with
breadth
at just +116.
The SPX
(
$SPX.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and Dow
(
$INDU |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
made new three-week lows with the SPX making an 1173.39 low and closing at
1175.41, -0.8%, while the Dow closed at 10,471, -0.7%, with a new intraday
low
at 10,456. This is a positive, as it makes it a minimum of a
three-weekly-bar
retracement move down to their 15-week rising EMAs. The SPX 15-week EMA is
1174.43 and for the Dow it is 10,497, so they are the immediate upside focus
levels and must be cleared if the indices are to get back on
track.
Most of the primary sectors declined in line
with
the SPX, except for the CYC, which was -1.1%. The
(
SMH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) finished
at -0.4%
after having been green most of the day.
Traders had one
Trap Door
and two
RST long
entries yesterday in the
(
SPY |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)/futures with the first one being both an
RST
long and Trap Door above 117.82, which made it to 118.20 before resuming the
direction of the open (90% – 60% Rule) and making a new intraday low of
117.29.
This set up the second RST because it had taken out the 117.50 previous low
last
week. Entry was above 117.56 and it traded to 118.09 before trading down to
the
117.50 close.
The
(
QQQQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) had similar entries with the
first one above 37.60, trading to 37.81, and the second 37.48 to 37.67
before
closing at 37.35, right at the -2.0 volatility band for yesterday. The QQQQ
volume expanded to 121 million (93 million average) vs. 105 million the
previous
day. Yesterday was the 24th day of this QQQQ decline from the 12/10/04 40.68
high.
There was also some excitement in a few focus
list stocks yesterday with
(
EBAY |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) getting slammed on earnings
news, -19.1%
on the day, and the “green team” led by
(
FFIV |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) +13.6%
(different strokes).
The Nasdaq
(
$COMPQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and QQQQ are now
in
show-and-tell zones with the Nasdaq closing at 2046 and the 200-day EMA just
2.5% below at 1994. The QQQQ went out at 37.35 with the 200-day EMA at
36.80.
Further south are the semiconductors, with the SMH closing at 30.65 vs. the
.618
retracement to its 27.77 low from the 34.95 rally high, which is 30.51.
Yesterday’s intraday low was 30.52. The 200-day EMA is up at
33.36.
The Generals will have to put some money to
work
in these areas soon because, as I have previously said, the SPX can’t get
past
the 1220 – 1260 zone on the food stocks,
(
BUD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
PEP |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
KO |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
PG |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
and
(
MCD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating). Minor support for the QQQQ is 36.80 – 36.70, in addition to
the
200-day EMA at 36.80 and then the .50 retracement to the August 32.35 low,
which
is 36.52. This corner got started on the close as the percentage range to
36.52
is just 2.2%, so it is a scale-in position.
FYI: This commentary was done Thursday night
for
Friday.
Have a good trading day,
Kevin Haggerty