Waiting Game
The waiting game of the
intermediate-term trader continues. As I watch for bases to form, not only do I
wait for right side recoveries and base lengths in excess of five weeks, I also
wait for volatility contraction. By that last criterion, Sun Microsystems has a
ways to go.
Sun Microsystems
(
SUNW |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
prematurely posted its fiscal first quarter results on its Web site during
Wednesday’s session. Before Sun could pull down the press release, Reuters and
other news agencies saw that Sun had increased its net income rose 85% on a 60%
rise in sales. After the close, the Palo Alto, Calif.-based company reported
earning 30 cents a share vs. analyst estimates averaging 26 cents, according to
First Call/Thomson Financial.
The stock gyrated between an intraday
high of 119 1/8 and an intraday low of 102 3/4, a range of 16 3/8, nearly double
Sun’s average trading range over the prior 10 days. After all that effort, Sun
barely closed the midpoint of the range. Volume swelled to five times Sun’s
usual trade.Â
I would stay out of this fight.
There’s a raging battle between supply and demand. I short when I see the offers
overwhelming the bids. I go long when I see buyers overwhelming sellers. Neither camp has demonstrated clear superiority here.
If you trade breakouts, wait for the
market to put in a follow-through day and for stocks completing sound bases to
proliferate. If you have your eye on Sun for an intermediate-term trade, you
need convincing volume to the upside as the stock rounds up the right side of
its correction-recovery pattern.Â
Then you need to see shares
consolidate on light volume and contracting price volatility, signaling an abatement
of selling prior to breaking through your pivot point on a resumption of heavy
volume (i.e., strong demand).
For intermediate-term momentum trades,
the stock should have cleared its 50- and 200-day moving averages and its mid
level, defined as half of the sum of the pre-correction intraday price high and
correction intraday low. Sun’s midpoint, assuming it does not set a new
correction low, is at 112 7/16.
I also require my long trades overcome
prior resistance, unless I use the resistance point itself as a pivot point. Sun
faces resistance at 123 7/8. (See the black arrow
in the above chart.)
All stocks, of course, are risky. In
any new trade, reduce your risk by limiting your position size and setting a
protective price stop where you will sell your new buy or cover your short in
case the market turns against you. For an introduction to combining price stops
with position sizing, see my lesson,
Risky Business. For further treatment of these and related topics,
you’ll find extensive lessons in the Money
Management area of TradingMarkets’ Stocks Education section.
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