The VIX (the Chicago Board Option Exchange’s volatility index) is becoming an increasingly popular indicator in the financial press.
Dell Computer’s sell-off early yesterday pulled
the plug on the rest of the market.
But true to form, Dell managed to rally back to 84 before drifting between 82 and 80. Volume was
big at 56 million (that’s real volume, not double-counted). The drop put Dell down 32 percent in
11 days from the 110 double top, and it of course has company in many of its tech relatives.
T-bond futures Short-term perspective: We liquidated our long positions in the March contract [USH9>USH9] at the 123 20/32 level. The market bounced back as the oversold condition corrected itself, and it also got support from theJapanese governments decision to cut back their bond supply on Monda
After the aggressive end-of-1998 markup and the
“welcome 1999” rally, with high closes of 9643 in the Dow and 1280 in the S&P 500 on January 8,
the market has been stuck in a 5 to 5.5 percent trading range for the past six weeks. Make sure
you have a strategy in place to play the move out of this range.
S&P 500 futures were up early and the tail wagged the dog–at
least initially. Stocks gapped on the opening and the Dow shot up over 100 points
in the first hour. After that, though the market sold off until staging a minor rally from
2:00 – 3:00 p.m.
More of the ugly same. Yesterday, volume wasn’t huge compared to the
moves in the Nifty 25-50 stocks that have carried the market to its lofty speculative heights.
It was the seventh straight day of negative breadth, and most of the key players were on the sell
Yesterday, volume and institutional block activity
off noticeably. The techs tried to make up some of last week’s 12-15 percent loss, with Dell,
Microsoft, and Intel–the best of the bunch–all gaining approximately 3.5 percent.
S&P 500 futuresSame old story. The March contract [SPH9>SPH9] refuses to provide a trade setup. We will remain on the sidelines. T-bond futures Short-term perspective: The March contract [USH9>USH9] rallied close to our exit level today. Our goal is to exit this trade around 125 for a small loss.
Yesterday, the futures turned down right before the opening and the tech
stocks went south. Interest rates perked up, the long bond lost almost a point, and the Utility
Index (UTY) closed below its 200-day moving average for the fifth straight day.
One of the best ways to exploit the CVR signals from the
Market Bias Indicators page.