24-Year High — Next Target $1000

Technical Outlook

BONDS (MAR) 03/02/04: With the close higher than
the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. Near-term
resistance for bonds is at 114.13 and then again at 115.01, while swing support
hits at 113.13 and below there at 113.01. The market’s close above the 9-day
moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The daily
stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. Daily
stochastics turning lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to
reinforce a downside break especially if near-term support is penetrated. The
next downside target is 113.01.

T-NOTES(MAR) The daily closing price reversal
down puts the market on the defensive. The daily stochastic’s gave a bearish
indicator with a crossover down. Momentum studies are trending lower from high
levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break below the 1st swing
support. The next downside objective is now at 114.18. It is a mildly bullish
indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The major trend is
down with the cross over back below the 40-day moving average. Near-term
resistance for the T-Notes is at 115.25 and then again at 116.11, while swing
support hits at 114.28 and below there at 114.18. The market’s short-term trend
is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average.

 

STOCK INDICES RECAP

3/1/2004

Stocks saw steady gains initially supported by
strength in foreign stock markets and then from a positive ISM Manufacturing
survey reading. The ISM data showed manufacturing continued to expand in
February, although at a slower rate while the Employment Index saw a jump to the
highest level since 1987. This suggests the Feb payroll could show stronger
growth an expected. Despite gains in energy prices, the inflation measures the
Fed watched have not seen shocking gains so a pick-up in employment would not
likely translate in to a rate hike keeping the environment bullish for stocks.
The move over 1150 puts the March S&P in a bullish technical setup with the
market likely pushing through the Feb highs this week.

Technical Outlook

S&P500 (MAR) 03/02/04: With the close over the
1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position.
Underlying support comes in at 1150.10 and 1143.00, with overhead resistance at
1160.90 and 1164.60. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above
the 9-day moving average. The daily stochastics gave a bullish indicator with a
crossover up. The near-term upside objective is at 1164.60.

S&P E-Mini (MAR): The market made a new contract
high on the rally. A bullish signal was given with an upside crossover of the
daily stochastics. The next upside objective is 1166.44. The market setup is
supportive for early gains with the close over the 1st swing resistance.
Near-term resistance for the S&P Mini is at 1162.13 and then again at 1166.44,
while swing support hits at 1148.88 and below there at 1139.94. A negative
signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average.

NASDAQ (MAR) The market’s close above the 9-day
moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. A positive setup
occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The market should run
into resistance at 1502.25 and above there at 1509.13 with support at 1477.75
and 1460.13. Short-term indicators suggest buying dips today. The daily
stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The next upside
target is 1509.1.

MINI DOW (MAR) The market’s close above the 9-day
moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The market should
run into resistance at 10723 and above there at 10753 with support at 10630 and
10567. Negative momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce
lower price action. The next downside target is 10567. A positive setup occurred
with the close over the 1st swing resistance.

 

CURRENCY MARKET RECAP

3/1/2004

The Dollar saw a choppy sideways trade as the
economic data was mostly mixed. With few economic reports until Friday’s
employment data, the Dollar may be searching for direction. A breakout move
would occur on a close above 88.38 in the March Dollar Index. ISM manufacturing
Index still showed the sector expanding although at a slower pace, but the
employment component showed a big jump, which the Feb payroll data could be
stronger than the market originally thought. The Euro closed lower on concerns
that the European Central Bank may become less hawkish. The ECB meets March 4th
and if they stay hawkish the Euro could see a rebound late in the week although
a close back over 1.2604 would be needed to turn the trend back up. The Yen
firmed of Japanese investors repatriation ahead of the fiscal year end this
month. A soaring Japanese stock market also attracting investment back to Japan,
but the BOJ has been very effective using intervention to control the market so
the upside looks limited.

Technical Outlook

YEN (MAR): The market’s close below the 9-day
moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. A
positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. Swing
resistance is targeted at 91.91 and above there at 92.01, with the yen finding
support around 91.66 and below there at 91.51. The close under the 40-day moving
average indicates the longer-term trend could be turning down. Momentum studies
are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The next downside target is
91.51.

EURO (MAR): Daily stochastics are trending lower,
but have declined into oversold territory. The next downside objective is now at
1.2365. The market is in a bearish position with the close below the 2nd swing
support number. Swing support for the Euro comes in at 1.2365, with overhead
resistance at 1.2541. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close
remains below the 9-day moving average. The major trend is down with the cross
over back below the 40-day moving average. The gap down on the day session chart
is bearish with more selling pressure possible today.

 

PRECIOUS METALS RECAP

3/1/2004

Both silver and platinum moved sharply higher
Monday on aggressive fund, investor and end-user buying starting in Asia and
over flowing in to the US market action as prices have yet to ration demand in a
tightening supply environment. April platinum led the way high with a move
through $900, which puts the next target at $1,000. May silver closed 23 cents
higher with the next upside target at 711. Gold was the weak sister and traders
could have been using gold to spread against long positions in the other metals.
The metals were able to rally sharply even in the face of a weak Euro/stronger
dollar, which suggests the metals have divorced themselves from the currency
market. Surging energy prices may have also fueled inflation concerns.

Technical Outlook

SILVER (MAY): Since the close was above the 2nd
swing resistance number, the market’s posture is bullish and could see more
upside follow-through early in the session. Initial support for silver is at
681.5 and below there at 666.3 with resistance likely at 694.9 and 707.5. The
market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend
remains positive. Studies are showing positive momentum, but are now in
overbought territory so some caution is warranted. The next upside target is
694.9. A new contract high was made on the rally.

GOLD (APR): Support for gold today comes in near
395.43, while resistance is pegged at 405.23. Daily stochastics are trending
lower, but have declined into oversold territory. The next downside objective is
now at 395.43. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the
pivot swing number. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close
remains below the 9-day moving average. The gap up on the day session chart gave
a bullish indicator and more follow through could be seen this session.

^next^

 

COPPER MARKET RECAP

3/1/2004

May copper gapped higher on aggressive Chinese
and Asia buying as the market heads for a target of $1.46. Prices have yet to
ration demand in an ever tightening supply outlook, which means prices are
likely to be pushed higher. LME copper stocks fell another 3,600 tonnes and with
talk of a supply deficit this year those that need the metal are willing to pay
up.

 

ENERGY MARKET RECAP

3/1/2004

Gasoline prices screamed higher on on-going
supplies fears tied to political unrest in Venezuela and a tanker explosion.
April unleaded is over due for a correction, but the market’s extreme
sensitivity to any even remote supply threat given the market’s fragile
supply/demand balance means price breaks are likely to be shallow and buying
opportunities. Venezuela’s President, facing more pressure by opponents for a
recall election, threatened to withhold oil to the US if the US military were to
interfere. With US gasoline stocks low and refiners not yet rebuilding stocks,
the market is bracing for a supply crunch this spring. Comments from Saudi
Arabia’s oil minister trying to re-assure the market that OPEC will meet world
oil demand needs did little to dampen concern. The trend is strongly up and way
too risky to try and pick a top using only futures.

Technical Outlook

CRUDE OIL (APR): The rally brought the market to
a new contract high. The market’s close above the 2nd swing resistance number is
a bullish indication. Support for crude is keyed on 36.27 and below there at
35.45, with resistance pegged at 37.45 and 37.81. The market’s short-term trend
is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average. Momentum studies are
trending higher, but have entered overbought levels. The near-term upside
objective is at 37.81. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching
overbought levels.

UNLEADED GAS (APR): Studies are showing positive
momentum, but are now in overbought territory so some caution is warranted. The
next upside target is 117.58. A positive setup occurred with the close over the
1st swing resistance. Resistance today is at 117.58, while support should be
found around 110.78. A new contract high was made on the rally. The market’s
close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains
positive. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought
levels.

HEATING OIL (APR):It is a mildly bullish
indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. Heating oil should
encounter support around 90.55, with resistance is at 98.15. The market’s
short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average. Momentum
studies are trending higher, but have entered overbought levels. The near-term
upside objective is at 98.15. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is
approaching overbought levels. The outside day up is a positive signal. The
rally brought the market to a new contract high. The upside closing price
reversal on the daily chart is somewhat bullish.

 

CORN MARKET RECAP

3/1/2004

May Corn finished down 1/4 at 302 3/4, 1 3/4 off
the high and 2 1/4 up from the low. December Corn closed up 1 at 296 1/2. This
was 2 1/2 up from the low and 1/2 off the high. May Rice finished up 0.18 at
9.36, 0.09 off the high and 0.16 up from the low. After making a new contract
high, May corn’s lower close could be considered a bearish technical
development. The soybean strength provided early support but ideas that the
market is overbought after 7 consecutive contract high sessions in a row and
news from the trader’s report of another record net long position from fund
traders helped limit the new buying. In the futures and options report, funds
were holding a net long position of 163,937 contracts as of February 24th.
Deliveries against the March contract came in at 1105 contracts this morning
with receivers scattered among many firms. Weekly export inspections came in at
23.789 million bushels as compared with trade expectations at 38-42 million.
Cumulative shipments have reached 910.8 million bushels as compared with 743.3
million last year at this stage. The lower than expected exports could be a sign
of sticker shock from importers after recent strong gains. Taiwan is tendering
for 56,000 tons of US corn this week and there was talk of demand from Japan
this week as well. Funds were noted as selling near 6000 contracts on the
session.

Technical Outlook

CORN (MAY) 03/02/04: Momentum studies are
trending higher, but have entered overbought levels. The near-term upside
objective is at 306 1/2. The market’s close below the pivot swing number is a
mildly negative setup. Market resistance comes in at 306 1/2 today, with support
at 298 1/2. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day
moving average. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought
levels.

 

SOY COMPLEX RECAP

3/1/2004

July soybeans closed 24 1/2 cents higher on the
session with active fund buying noted for the entire session as March also
experienced significant gains in spite of the deliveries. The gap up on a Monday
is seen as a positive technical development and so are new contract highs for
soybeans and products on the session. November soybeans hit new highs as well
and also hit psychological resistance at 750. Crop production concerns in South
America and continued strong speculative buying supporting the run to new
contract highs. Deliveries against the March contract came in at 247 contracts
for soybeans, 306 for oil and 347 for meal this morning. Weekly export
inspections came in at 18.95 million bushels as compared with trade expectations
at 18-23 million. Cumulative shipments have reached 702.5 million bushels as
compared with 767.3 million last year at this stage. China shipped 9.625 million
bushels on the week. The short term weather situation seems slightly negative
with drier weather for harvest in the north and good rains in the forecast for
the next few days in Argentina. However, traders seem more concerned that damage
has already been done, that the crop may take time to reach the world market and
that the crop is vulnerable to more harvest and shipping problems ahead.
Strength in palm oil overnight and strength at the China exchange added to the
positive tone early. Talk that only light rains fell over the weekend in
Argentina helped support. May Soybeans finished up 19 1/2 at 957, 1 off the high
and 19 up from the low. November Soybeans closed up 14 at 750. This was 11 up
from the low and equal to the high. May Soymeal closed up 4.8 at 286.2. This was
4.9 up from the low and 0.3 off the high. May Soybean oil finished up 0.49 at
34.52, 0.18 off the high and 0.47 up from the low.

Technical Outlook

SOYBEANS (MAY) 03/02/04: A new contract high was
made on the rally. A positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing
resistance. The next area of resistance is around 967 1/2 and 972 3/4, while 1st
support hits today at 947 1/2 and below there at 932 3/4. The market’s close
above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive.
Studies are showing positive momentum, but are now in overbought territory so
some caution is warranted. The next upside target is 972 3/4. The 9-day RSI over
70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels.

MEAL (MAY): Momentum studies are trending higher,
but have entered overbought levels. The near-term upside objective is at 290.2.
The rally brought the market to a new contract high. First resistance comes in
at 288.7, with support at 283.5. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a
close above the 9-day moving average. With the close over the 1st swing
resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position. With a
reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels.

BEAN OIL (MAY): The market’s close above the
9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. Studies are
showing positive momentum, but are now in overbought territory so some caution
is warranted. The next upside target is 35.11. A positive setup occurred with
the close over the 1st swing resistance. A new contract high was made on the
rally. Daily swing resistance is found at 34.88 and above there at 35.11.
Support should be encountered at 34.23 and 33.81. The 9-day RSI over 70
indicates the market is approaching overbought levels.

 ^next^

WHEAT MARKET RECAP

3/1/2004

July wheat opened higher and took out Friday’s
highs from strength in the other markets but ended sharply lower on the session
when long liquidation from speculators entered the market a the move lower on
the session and sell-stops were hit on a move under Friday’s lows. Good rains
reported in the plains over the weekend with another system in the forecast for
later this week along with hefty deliveries against the March contract
contributed to the sell-off. In addition, traders are a bit concerned with the
large net long position of the fund traders shown in the COT reports over the
weekend. Many of the dry areas of western Kansas received 1/2-3/4 inches of
rain. Dodge City Kansas received .63 inches and Goodland received more than 1/2
inch. Deliveries against the March contract came in at 1518 contracts this
morning with receivers scattered among many firms. Weekly export inspections
came in at 29.578 million bushels as compared with trade expectations at 18-23
million. Cumulative shipments have reached 838.2 million bushels as compared
with 644.2 million last year at this stage. The friendly demand export numbers
were not enough to offset the potential for improving crops conditions as the
crop comes out of dormancy into the spring. News from the USDA attach‚ in Egypt
that planted acreage was up 1.2% from last year added to the bearish tone. May
Wheat finished down 5 1/4 at 385 1/2, 9 1/2 off the high and 3 up from the low.
July Wheat closed down 4 3/4 at 387 1/2. This was 2 up from the low and 8 1/2
off the high. July Oats closed up 1 at 166. This was 1 1/4 up from the low and
equal to the high.

Technical Outlook

WHEAT (MAY) 03/02/04: The outside day down and
close below the previous day’s low is a negative signal. The downside closing
price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Short-term indicators on
the defensive. Consider selling an intraday bounce. The swing indicator gave a
moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st support number. Look
for near-term support at 378 1/2 and below there at 374 1/4, with resistance
levels at 391 and 399 1/4. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is
an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The daily stochastics have
crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The next downside target is 374
1/4.

 

LIVE CATTLE RECAP

3/1/2004

April cattle closed sharply higher and to the
highest level since December 26th as beef production has come in well below
expectations and traders are still optimistic that Mexico exports will resume
soon. Expectations for higher cash markets this week and higher beef prices
helped support active fund buying. Just after the close, Mexico officials
indicated that the ban on US beef imports will at least a few more weeks as
Mexico health officials visit four US meat plants next week to ensure that the
new deboning methods help stop the spread of mad cow disease. Today’s estimated
slaughter came in at 117,000 head versus guesses ranging from 103,000 to
114,000. Boxed-beef cut-out values were up $1.53 to $137.54 as compared with
$126.42 last week at this time.

Technical Outlook

CATTLE (APR) 03/02/04: Studies are showing
positive momentum, but are now in overbought territory so some caution is
warranted. The next upside target is 78.67. Since the close was above the 2nd
swing resistance number, the market’s posture is bullish and could see more
upside follow-through early in the session. Support should be encountered at
77.30 and below there at 76.62. Market resistance is at 78.32 and then again at
78.67. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term
trend remains positive. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is
approaching overbought levels.

 

LEAN HOGS RECAP

3/1/2004

April hogs closed 27 higher on the session but
more than 50 points off of the highs of the day and off of the opening. The
close below the opening after making contract highs could be seen as a negative
technical development. The market found support from cash market strength with
Peoria hogs up $2.00 on the day. Improving profit margins for the packer
supported strong short-term demand for live hogs and the surge in pork cut-out
values late last week added to the positive tone. The 2-day Lean index for the
period ending February 26th was down 37 cents to 61.84 as compared with 63.13
last week at this time. Today’s estimated slaughter came in at 387,000 head as
compared with estimates at 377,000-385,000 head.

Technical Outlook

HOGS (APR) 03/02/04: It is a mildly bullish
indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. Resistance levels
comes in at 62.62 and 63.05 today, while support is around 61.97 and then 61.75.
The rally brought the market to a new contract high. The market’s short-term
trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average. Momentum studies
are trending higher, but have entered overbought levels. The near-term upside
objective is at 63.05.

 

COCOA MARKET RECAP

3/1/2004

While May cocoa finished lower on the day Monday,
the market did manage to rally and close sharply off its lows. However, a lack
of fresh news and reports that the Ivory Coast harvest is coming in better than
expected has left the trend down. Funds have recently done some short covering,
which appeared to have dried up in Monday’s trade. A report from the ICCO
forecasting that few chocolate manufacturers will take advantage of changes in
the European Union rules that would allow less cocoa butter to be used in the
production is a supportive factor, but it was not enough of a catalyst to get
May back over $1,600.

Technical Outlook

COCOA (MAY)03/02/04 The market tilt is slightly
negative with the close under the pivot. Cocoa should run into resistance at
1587 and above there at 1609 with support at 1527 and 1489. Positive momentum
studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The next
upside target is 1608.50.

 

COFFEE MARKET RECAP

3/1/2004

July coffee closed 75 lower on the session with
an outside day down as weakness in London, higher than expected crop production
from Africa and Southeast Asia and increasing exchange stocks helped to trigger
the light long liquidation selling. Speculators were noted with a net long
position of near 35,000 contracts in the weekend futures and options traders’
report which contributed to the speculative long liquidation selling. Brazil
exports for the February 1st to 26th time frame were reported at 873,593 bags as
compared with 1.311 million bags for the same time frame in January. A strike at
the Santos Brazil port was slowing exports for the past week. Guatemala coffee
exports were 348,872 bags for February, down 9.6% from last years pace.
Improving crop conditions and good weather in Brazil coffee growing areas along
with rising exchange stocks are seen as negative factors. CSCE stocks were up
6588 bags to 4.502 million with 152,298 bags pending review.

Technical Outlook

COFFEE (MAY)3/2/04 The downside closing price
reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. The market tilt is slightly
negative with the close under the pivot. Daily stochastics are showing positive
momentum from oversold levels which should reinforce a move higher if near-term
resistance is taken out. The near-term upside objective is at 78.10.The Coffee
contract should run into resistance at 77.00 and above there at 78.10 with
support at 75.05 and 74.20. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close
above the 9-day moving average.

 

SUGAR MARKET RECAP

3/1/2004

May sugar closed 12 higher on the session and on
the highs of the day as the market stayed inside of Friday’s range. The reversal
on Friday is still a bearish short-term technical development but a move over
625 will negate the impact of the reversal. Funds were noted buyers through-out
the session and news from the COT report that funds are still holding a near
record net short position of over 32,000 contracts helped provide underlying
support. Deliveries against the March contract came in at 6754 contracts which
was in-line with expectations and the lack of a surprise was seen as positive.
Traders still await increased buying in the cash markets led by China.

Technical Outlook

SUGAR (MAY) 03/02/04: With the close over the 1st
swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position. Swing
resistance comes in at 6.33, with support found at 6.09. The market’s short-term
trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average. Momentum studies
are trending higher, but have entered overbought levels. The near-term upside
objective is at 6.33. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching
overbought levels.

 

COTTON MARKET RECAP

3/1/2004

May cotton closed 0.24 lower today at 73.53,
still dominated by last Thursday’s wide range. Rumors the China would increase
their import quotas by 500,000 to 1 million bales supported the market last
week, but there has been confirmation as such. The fact that last week’s rally
came on declining volume and open interest leaves the technical outlook tenuous.
Certificated stocks totaled 318,606 bales for the week ending February 27th with
8,614 pending review. The Cotlook Cotton Indexes were firmer, with the “A” index
0.20 higher at 75.10 and the “B” index 0.25 higher at 73.35

Technical Outlook

COTTON (MAY) 03/02/04: The market’s close above
the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. It is a
slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing
number. Next resistance area comes in at 73.96 and then again at 74.35, while
support is targeted at 73.11 and 72.65. Studies are showing positive momentum,
but are now in overbought territory so some caution is warranted. The next
upside target is 74.35. ORANGE JUICE (MAY)3/2/04 The new contract low and close
above the previous day’s high constitutes a key reversal which is a bullish
signal. The sell-off took the market to a new contract low. The gap upmove on
the day session chart is a bullish indicator for trend. The market has a bullish
tilt coming into today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing resistance.
Orange Juice should run into resistance at 63.70 and above there at 64.15 with
support at 62.15 and 61.05. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close
above the 9-day moving average. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which
is a bullish indication. The near-term upside objective is at 64.15.