2 Economic Numbers To Watch On Monday

UK RICS House Price Balance (JUL)

Previous: -42

Outlook:   Economists predict that the RICS house price balance
index will improve to —38 in July, which would be the highest reading since
February.  An improved RICS survey value, which measures the difference between
witnessed housing price drops and gains, would fall in line with other
indicators that show slowly recovering house value growth. The Financial Times
housing index reported 0.4 percent growth, while nationwide housing prices turn
back into positive territory at a 0.2 percent pace.  The slight gains in housing
are led by a healthy pickup in consumer confidence, which rose off of six-month
lows in July. Likewise significant, expectations of a Bank of England interest
rate cut probably improved national appetite for housing. Now that a lending
rate cut has been realized, the RICS housing price balance could soon cross into
positive territory for the first time since July 2004.

 

Previous:  The RICS housing price balance bounced off of
13-year lows to a better than expected -42 in July. Despite the improvement,
housing prices plunged in June with the ODPM measure falling to a record low
while nationwide prices matched the fastest decline for the past three years. 
With the soft housing market and speculation of a BoE rate cut, consumer lending
took a dive to its lowest level for the year.  Given the disparity between
improvement in the RICS survey and declining lending data, some speculate that
the housing survey may be a leading indicator—