A Good Lesson
We all know the saying, ‘you
should have been here yesterday.’ It’s an unfortunate truth, but especially with Mr. Market,
some days are going to be much better than others. Case in point, for those that
follow my intraday analysis in our members’ chat and via our Live Alerts–it was,
quite simply, an unbelievable day yesterday. Sure, there were some hits (thanks, SSYS), but the winners (VAR, GRMN, JCOM, KBH) more than offset the ‘cost of
doing business’ through disciplined, consistent daytrading.
I verbally expressed this line of thought
yesterday in the chat–that it just might be time to ‘pay the tollmaster’ after
such a great ride. But, what I also said was that you could expect my analysis
to take a ‘breather.’ My reasoning was that after hitting paydirt (kind of like
the market having a Follow Thru Day or FTD), it was on a personal level
probably time to consolidate those gains.
As with the market, there are two ways to
consolidate gains, either with an actual pullback down, or a more or less
lateral consolidation. For traders, the same holds true–you can either ‘lay low
or lay off’ your trading when you ‘get the cents’, and keep your gains (more or
less) by trading less and watching more of the action from the sidelines–or you
can ‘give it up’, just like the market does in a downward style pullback. For
traders of course, that is called a drawdown. If possible, I always try to go
with first plan of ‘inaction’, rather than ‘pressing the key and my good
fortune’ when I see that the odds are less-than-perfect for my style of trading.
Besides what I was feeling after yesterday’s good
fortune, by the time I sat down at my workstation I had a couple of more clues
that it was going to be a ‘frigid day’ in my little space, within the big ol’
market place. For me, some of the things that hinted at a day with less trading
edge were:
1. It was physically freezing–I should have had
mittens on when tapping the keyboard.
2. The premarket gap higher towards
resistance levels on the daily charts in our ETF friends–this is especially
tough for someone that enjoys playing the reversals from the long side and
breakouts (which would more than likely be more difficult, with the opening
gaps).
3. Still some ‘moving clutter’ to deal with after
my recent relocation North.
Now, just because I feel the world is not right
anymore, doesn’t prevent the setups from appearing–sometimes though, they just
aren’t all cracked up to be the normal scoop du jour. When you can spot
potential less-than-perfect conditions ahead of time, whether they be personal,
market climate, or a combo of the two–learn to take a hint, and choose to listen
and learn, rather than ‘play, and pay.’
10:14:54
Reversal Setup
United Online (UNTD)
is forming a possible
1,2,3 intraday setup for longs. UNTD is down 1.19 at 29.88. From the 10/14
lows, today’s low has tested the 50% Fib. level off the opening gap high, and
lending technical support for the potential reversal play.
10:46:11
Reversal Update
United Online (UNTD)
is forming an intraday triangle. The stock did not qualify for the potential
1,2,3 entry, but has subsequently consolidated at higher levels as it forms
the current pattern. UNTD is now down .88 at 30.21.
12:07:12
Reversal Update
What’s the saying–‘three strikes and…’ United
Online (UNTD)
did have
1,2,3 players potentially stepping up to the plate off a hammer low earlier
in the session. Unfortunately though–the trade with edge was hit with a small
loss. Part of the game, and the game goes on. UNTD is now setting up once again
on a double bottom
1,2,3 retest of lows. UNTD is down 2 pts at 29.09.
Not that they all triggered, because they didn’t,
but I don’t personally need three strikes to figure it out.