Futures Point To A Slightly Weaker Open
INTEREST
RATES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to
4:15 AM:
BONDS
-2 — While short term technicals are in a sell mode,
we would have to think that the significant correction off the December 31st
high, has effectively balanced this market. Certainly the 110-00 level has
become a critical pivot zone, with the potential to see more minor declines this
morning good. However, before the end of the week we have to think that the up
trend will re-gather itself and overcome the current listless action.
STOCK
INDICES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to
4:15 AM:
S&P -200,
NIKKEI -56, FTSE -18
— The stock market is certainly getting mileage out of
the potential stimulus fervor. In addition to the positive spin from
Washington
, the
stock market is also seeing support from a temporary correction in energy
prices. While a Fed member yesterday suggested that unemployment might continue
to rise in 2003, before it begins to fall, it should also be noted that the Fed
thinks the
US
economy
is moving beyond its soft spot.
FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
DOLLAR:
Maybe the gains today are a delayed reaction to the potential stimulus programs
being floated in the
US
, or
maybe the gains are simply a function of an oversold status. We were very
surprised that the Dollar didn’t respond favorably to the initial announcement
on the dividend reduction, as that should stimulate investment in the
US
.
However, the Dollar would seem to be fighting an uphill battle against a
stubborn recovery effort, but maybe recent weakness in energy prices will take
some pressure off the Dollar. With the
US
factory
order release this morning, the market gets the first critical information of
the week and that reading might not be as soft as the market has factored.
Remember the markets have factored in almost no recovery in the
US
and
therefore a better than expected number might help the Dollar correct further.
Near term resistance in the Dollar comes in at 103.56 and we doubt that a rise
above that level will be seen without more significant developments than are
expected today. However, one should not discount the potential patriotic lift,
provided into the Presidential speech this afternoon. Once
the Press tears into the Plan and Congress voices opposition to the plan, then
the euphoria toward US stocks and the Dollar might wane. Traders should
be looking for a place to sell the Dollar (103.32) in the coming 5 hours.
EURO:
Euro zone December Business Climate readings were generally slightly better than
prior month readings, but were mostly still in a contractionary
position. The euro zone survey suggested that there would be no Euro zone
recovery until the second half of 2003 and that could keep the Euro weak today.
With the French President “Urging” his troops to be prepared for a war
with
Iraq
, it
would seem that the French have shifted toward the
US
position. If the French plan to join the action in
Iraq
, that
should take some of the recent luster off the Euro. We hardly see the March Euro
falling further than 103.02.
YEN:
With short-term technicals in a sell mode and the
Yen falling toward a downside breakout, we would not be surprised to see the BOJ
intervene and catch the benefit of an opportunity to force the Yen lower. The
old banking issue also surfaced last night and that typically fosters selling of
the Yen from broad based accounts. Near term pivot point support and a critical
breakout zone is seen at 83.41.
SWISS:
With flight to quality lost in the hype of US political developments and the technicals
in a short term sell mode, we suspect that the Swiss will test chart support of
71.27.
POUND:
The overbought status generated by the December rally in the Pound, should
propagate a correction to 158.34. Since the sell signal in the Pound is weak, we
doubt that a significant correction is ahead in the currency.
CANADIAN:
Since the Canadian was able to battle against extremely dire sentiment in the
US
, over
the last two weeks, a noted improvement in the
US
outlook
(even if the improvement is temporary) should allow the Canadian to rise to the
mid December consolidation bound by 64.06 to 64.48. The Canadian must hold above
63.68 to maintain bullishness.
METALS
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to
4:15 AM
GLD -2.20,
SLV -4.0, PLAT +0.20;
London
Gold Fix
$348.75, -$7.25; LME Copper Warehouse stks 855,000 ton,
-850 tons; Comex Gold stocks 2.03 ml, -321 oz;
COMEX
Silver stks 107.3 ml oz, -596,824 oz; OVERNIGHT: More
profit taking in
Asia
but
price weakness appears to be limited
GOLD:
The weekly COT report showed the net spec long in gold to be nearly 111,000
contracts as of December 31st, which means gold, was recently almost another $10
an ounce above the COT report mark off point. In other words, the spec long in
gold was perhaps close to 120,000 net spec long around the highs Monday.
Therefore, it is likely that gold will correct further, just to balance its
position and solidify the late December gains.
SILVER:
Like gold, silver is sporting a large net spec long of almost 60,000 contracts.
The largest net spec in silver over the last 5 years was a little over 80,000
contracts, which suggests that the market is overbought but continues to have
additional buying potential. Also like gold, silver short-term technicals
are in a sell mode, with a possible corrective targeting of $4.80.
PLATINUM:
The net spec long in platinum comes in at 4,500 contracts, which is overbought
in a market that doesn’t normally carry a huge open interest. With a stronger $
and a weaker stock market, a corrective swing to $599 in April platinum is
expected.
COPPER:
The market appeared to run into a brick wall of resistance around 74.00 in the
March contract on Monday. With the Chinese turning sellers overnight that should
add to the topping potential seen Monday. In fact, if US factory orders are weak
and the US stock market slides, then copper might correct toward 72.00 and
possibly 71.75.
CRUDE
COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT
CHG to 4:15 AM:
CRUDE -86, HEAT -140,
UNGA -96 — SPECIAL NOTICE: From now on, the weekly API
stats will be released Wednesday morning at 8:00 CST, instead of Tuesday after
the close! The weakness in energy prices Monday,
supposedly came off the combination of OPEC production “promises” and
a profit taking incentive by a very large speculative long position. The recent
COT report showed crude to be net spec long 93,000 contracts and that was before
the market added another $2 a barrel to prices after the report was measured.
NATURAL
GAS
The
natural gas market fell significantly Monday, on the threat of above normal
temps in the
US
on Wednesday. In fact,
Chicago is expecting 54 degrees and that could foster El Nino (warm winter)
fears.