Futures Point To A Weak Open
style=”FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial”>INTEREST
RATES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to
continues with the action since August appearing to be a massive broadening top.
However, seeing the action this week and looking closely at the numbers, one
can’t ignore the near term potential for more upside action. The market would
not appear to find resistance until 110-29 and could easily see that level
violated, if stock traders decide to take profits and back away aggressively
from the stock market early, because of the Iraqi
situation.
style=”FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial”>STOCK
INDICES
style=”FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bookmark:FOREX”>OVERNIGHT CHANGE tostyle=”mso-spacerun: yes”> 4:15 AM: S&P +130,
NIKKEI +43, FTSE -1.80
–Â This morning could be the “break-point” in the match, with the “sentiment” poor
and the numbers seemingly having the capacity to foster recovery views. In other
words, the trade might have become overly negative on the economy. For instance,
today the initial claims are expected to show a moderately large decline and the
leading indicators might show a gain in excess of .5%.style=”mso-bidi-font-weight: normal”>style=”COLOR: navy”>
style=”mso-bidi-font-weight: normal”>style=”FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial”>FOREIGN
EXCHANGEstyle=”FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial”>
style=”FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial”>DOLLAR: Like the
stock market, the US Dollar is about to register a near term technical buy
signal. However, it would appear that the macro economic case in the
is soft and will not be given any credit regardless of the upcoming numbers. In
other words, the currency markets don’t seem to be prepared to give the
credit this morning, for what could be impressive numbers. Right now, the Dollar
seems to be buying into the war mongering view, that
the gold and energy markets are factoring, regardless of
statements that
doesn’t appear to be in material breech of the UN resolution. In the action this
morning, the trade is already expecting
initial claims to decline sharply and for leading indicators to rise, but that
probably only serves to mitigate the slide in the Dollar. If the
stock market isn’t strong into it’s opening, the Dollar forges a new low for the
move.
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EURO: Favorable German numbers this
morning, foster the overnight strength in the Euro
against the Dollar and could easily result in a climb to new highs.style=”mso-spacerun: yes”>Â Near term support in the Euro comes in at
102.22.
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YEN: We have to think that the
overnight rise in the Yen is bringing the BOJ close to an intervention. However,
with the BOJ evidently more concerned about Japanese stock prices, as opposed to
the Yen, the Yen is probably allowed to rally further before an actual
intervention effort is undertaken.
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SWISS: Considering the run up in the
crude and gold markets overnight and the assumption that
is in hot water, the Swiss could be expected to run to new highs for the move.
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POUND: Retail sales in the
were barely positive, but right now the trade isn’t that focused on economic
growth, it is focused on being in currencies other than the Dollar. Even with
the
retail sales showing a slower than expected start to the holiday season, the
Pound is into new high ground and is probably headed even higher.
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CANADIAN: It would appear that the
Canadian is beginning to lose its bullish edge, especially with the US Dollar
falling so far from favor. In fact, with a trade back below 63.97 the selling
might intensify in the Canadian. +style=”COLOR: navy”>
style=”mso-bidi-font-weight: normal”>style=”FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial”>METALSstyle=”mso-bidi-font-weight: normal”>style=”FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial”>
style=”FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial”>OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:15 AM:
GLD
+4.20, SLV +5.0, PLAT +11.00;
London Gold Fix $345.75, +$8.65;
LME Copper
Warehouse
style=”FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bookmark:CRUDE”>stks
857,725 ton, -1,800 tns; Comex
Gold stocks 2.04 ml, Unchanged; COMEX Silver stks 107.3
ml oz, -596,981 oz; OVERNIGHT: Impressively higher action sparked by aggressive
Chinese buying
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GOLD: After a massive overnight
spike up the gold market really didn’t hold a majority of initial gains
suggesting an exhausted posture. The overnight high in the February gold
contract was $355.7, with the opening looking to come in down around $346.6. We
have to think that anticipation of the
response to the Iraqi UN filing is the driving force in the market
place.
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SILVER: We have to think that the
overnight gold rise will now serve to drag silver higher. The overnight
indication from silver is for a 6-cent rally but silver did manage a 12-cent
rally at one point overnight. In the aftermath of the
situation in the early 90’s silver managed a rally to
616.
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PLATINUM: The platinum market
confirms this morning that it is in fact more of a precious metals market than
it is a physical demand driven market. The top of the uptrend in April platinum
comes in around 619 today.
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COPPER: The short term class=SpellE>technicals in the copper are close to signaling a buy but
the macro economic look and the uncertainty in the stock market would seem to
favor more downside. With the economic report slate today expected to show more
weakness and the world fearful that
has breeched a UN resolution we would think copper would have few buyers.
However, we think the precious metals are jumping to conclusions because the
and US don’t seem to be overly upset with the Iraqi
filing in their overnight statements.style=”mso-bidi-font-weight: normal”>style=”COLOR: navy”>
style=”mso-bidi-font-weight: normal”>style=”FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial”>CRUDE
COMPLEXstyle=”FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial”>
OVERNIGHT
CHG to 4:15 AM:
CRUDE +28, HEAT +47,
UNGA +96 –Â The energy complex recovered after the corrective action
Tuesday, puts the market in a better technical posture to rally. The fact that
Hugo Chavez suggested he would never resign increased the chance that Venezuelan
exports would remain shut down for an extended period of time.style=”mso-bidi-font-weight: normal”>style=”COLOR: navy”>
style=”FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial”>NATURAL
GAS
style=”FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial”>Expectations for the week inventory
report call for a draw of 100 to 160 bcf, but the market will probably be
focusing on whether or not the inventory total ends up being a net addition to
the annual deficit tally. The national weather service 6 to 10 day class=GramE>forecast calls for more mild weather in some areas of the US
and only a minor quadrant of below normal temps in the southwestern quarter of
the US.