Holiday Week Keeps Market Quiet
| PREVIOUS POSITIONS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market |
Long/Short |
Enter | size=2 color=000000>Exit | size=2 color=000000>P/L (per contract) |
| Dec. 99 T-bonds | Long | 114-05 | 115 | $843.75 |
| Dec. 99 S&Ps | Short | 1401 | 1409 | -$2000 |
| Dec. 99 Swiss franc | Long | .6550 | .6500 | -$625 |
CURRENT POSITIONS (AS OF 11/22/99) |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market | Date | Long/Short | Enter | Stop | size=2 color=000000>Target |
| Dec. 99 T-bonds | 11/17/99 | Long | 113-28 | 112-28 | 114-15 |
| Dec. 99 S&Ps | – | Flat | – | – | – |
| Dec. 99 Swiss franc | 11/8/99 | Short | .6478 | .6590 | – |
Note: All price levels are approximate.
T-bond futures
| If bonds don’t bounce soon there may be a wave of selling as the 113 level is taken out |
The December T-bond [USZ9>USZ9] dropped today on inflation fears. Crude oil rallied again today, and there were no economic reports of interest–two factors that helped push the market down again.
This week should be fairly quiet because of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. If bonds don’t bounce soon we suspect there will be a wave of selling as the 113 level is taken out and the bulls start getting out. Stay tuned.
 |
| Figure 1. December T-bond futures (USZ9), 60-minute bar. Source: Quote.com.
|
Stock index futures
| We suspect the market is at an intermediate-term top |
With the lack of news, the December S&Ps [SPZ9>SPZ9] had a quiet day. We suspect the market is at an intermediate-term top, as bonds are looking weaker by the day and the VIX index is below 20. This indicates too much complacency in the market; risk-reward favors short trades. Check back as we await a low-risk entry point.
Currency futures
The December Swiss franc [SFZ9>SFZ9] was very quiet today. We still hold our short position but don’t expect much activity this week due to holiday conditions. We will keep a close watch at the .6400 level in the December contract, as this seems to be major support. If the market cannot take that level out, we may cover our short positions and wait for another rally to re-short this market.
 |
| Figure 2. December Swiss franc futures (SFZ9), daily bar. Source: Quote.com.
|
Next update: Wednesday, November 24, 1999.
(Check “Today’s Schedule” every day on our home page to find out about additional updates.)