How To Use Put/Call Ratios To Identify Potential Moves In Individual Stocks
When
I make my trading decisions, I like to know everything I can about what I’m
getting into. I place a lot of emphasis on my charts, but they don’t always
tell the whole story. Using the put and call ratios of options can reveal a lot
about the potential price action for common stock.
In
this lesson I will cover two different forms of the Put/Call Ratio. The first is
the All Equities Put/Call Ratio. This is a popular sentiment indicator that is
best used to identify shifts in the general market direction. The second is the
Put and Call Ratios for individual stocks. This combines the Put/Call and
Call/Put relationships to identify short-term support and resistance zones for
the common stock.
All
Equities Put/Call Ratio
Ever
since 1997 the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) has made public their
Put/Call Volume Ratio. This statistic has proven to be one of the most effective
ways a trader can measure the sentiment of the markets. The basic function of
the indicator portrays the relationship between the number of option positions
taken in anticipation of a stock falling, the puts, over the number of option
positions taken in anticipation of a stock rising, the calls. This measurement
has proven to be most effective from a contrarian perspective. When an
exceedingly disproportionate number of puts outnumber the calls, the market tends
to rally. In other words, the “herd†is most often wrong.
By
comparing these two graphs, you can see that every time a spike in puts occurs
the market counters by rising. The only exception here happens at point “B,”
when the S&P manages only a slight gain before resuming its downtrend. The
key points here are the spikes. There isn’t any precision involved. The only
thing that is clear is the fact that when large amounts of pessimism via puts enter the
market, a rally is likely to follow. Notice the massive spikes at
point “C,†which served as a precursor to the rally off our April lows. The
most recent spike is from early last July when the market reacted with a light
rally.
The
psychology behind this is found somewhere within why the masses are generally wrong. One interpretation is that the bulk retail options investors represent
the “dumb money†and are going after what appears to be a certain decline in
the market. At the same time, “smart money†is buying puts to hedge their
long positions. When the market goes bullish, short-sellers are forced to cover
their positions, adding to a rally. Another explanation is from the supply-and-demand theory. When heavy selling pressure has already hit the market, there is
little left to bring it further down, thus, an up-trend. One of the main reasons
why this is an effective sentiment indicator is the fact that it tracks actual
money in play, as opposed to an opinion poll or less quantifiable theory. The charts
are what they are, and the Put/Call Ratio is a “must follow†indicator.
Put
and Call Ratios for Individual Stocks
To
a less certain degree, volume ratios for individual stocks can be an effective
way to identify setups. Like the All Equities Put/Call Ratio, the ratios of
individual stocks are used as a sentiment indicator. Individual stocks are
typically more volatile and trade in a wider range than the overall market and
are, therefore, less predictable. It pays to know how a particular stock behaves in
certain environments, and using the data from the open interest of options can
be a great way to monitor the common stock.
Open Interest on Options for Siebel Systems (SEBL).Â
Currently trading around $35 a share:
| Strike | Calls | Puts | Ratio |
| 15 | 452 | 445 | 0.987 |
| 17.50 | 42 | 401 | 9.55 |
| 20 | 129 | 1209 | 9.37 |
| 22.50 | 18 | 1727 | 95.94 |
| 25 | 705 | 32704 | 46.39 |
| 27.50 | 311 | 4657 | 14.97 |
| 30 | 5036 | 6705 | 1.33 |
| 32.50 | 2351 | 8511 | 3.62 |
| 35 | 11729 | 6712 | 1.75 |
| 37.50 | 3850 | 4194 | 0.92 |
| 40 | 14232 | 7902 | 1.80 |
| 42.50 | 2442 | 315 | 7.75 |
| 45 | 10625 | 5608 | 1.90 |
| 47.50 | 2445 | 321 | 7.61 |
| 50 | 15757 | 1223 | 12.88 |
| 55 | 9823 | 7269 | 1.35 |
| 60 | 6562 | 535 | 12.27 |
* NOTE:Â A Call/Put Ratio is used for
options above current stock price (marked in blue) and a Put/Call Ratio is
used for options below current stock price (marked in black.) This creates a
standard to better gauge the volume action.Â
This
data table for the options volume of Siebel Systems (SEBL) is telling me that
there is an overwhelming number of positions held in favor of the stock
declining in value. Without even using the ratios, I can see the volume is
heavily in favor of the puts. Right off the bat I know that the sentiment
is down for this stock. Using the ratios gives me an advantage for easily
identifying the sentiment for each price level with a single number. Ideally,
I’d like to know the actual short and long interest for the common stock, but
that information isn’t made public until a month later. Neutral sentiment for
the options ratios is roughly considered to be around 2.0. In other words, two
calls for every put on the upside, and two puts for every call on the downside.
Levels above 20 are beginning to show extreme levels of sentiment either bearish
or bullish.
I know from viewing this data that there is neutral sentiment on the downside of
this stock until I get to the Strike Price of 27. This will serve as short-term
support for the stock. On the upside, sentiment is roughly neutral to the Strike
Price of 42.50, where the stock will find short-term resistance.
This
data table also tells me that there are an exorbitant amount of traders who are
placing puts on the downside. With the contrarian perspective, this is one of
the factors that can lead to a “squeeze†of short sellers. The “squeezeâ€
occurs when short sellers are forced to cover their positions due to a rising
price in the common stock. Options traders and common stock traders move
identically with sentiment, therefore, I can assume there are a great number of
shares held short for this stock. Because it appears the “herd†has shifted
itself to the short side, I’m going to expect the stock will have a tough time
falling below the support zone of 27. Also, long puts on the downside require
market makers to buy shares of common stock to remain hedged. Short squeezes are
not easy things to predict, but any bullish event could cause shorts to run for
cover, driving the price up with new buying pressure. Tracking the put and call
ratios gives me a heads up for how the price action may play out.
The
reasoning behind the price action for individual stocks is similar to that
behind the All Equities Put/Call Ratio. The “herd†is often wrong. If you
follow the options volume for individual stocks you will notice that the
“smart money†leads the action as it quietly settles into the market, and
the “dumb money†usually ends the trend as masses flock in to create
vulnerable support and resistant zones for squeezes.Â
Another way to look at this is from the perspective of supply and demand.
When large amounts of selling pressure are already factored into the market,
there may not be much left to bring the prices down further.
Another
thing the options data gives me is a new support zone I won’t find on a
typical bar chart. Because SEBL has never traded below 22.95 there is no way I
can tell from looking at the chart where the price may consolidate if it falls
below. From looking at the options data I can see that there is congestion at
the 20, 17.50 and 15 strike prices. These areas are new zones of support I
won’t find anywhere else! Â
Calculating
the ratios for individual stocks can take some time, though with spreadsheets,
it’s really just a simple task that can give a trader a good basis for making
decisions. The data can be found on Yahoo!, and the CBOE’s cboe.com provides a
good resource for the All Equities Put/Call Ratio. As I said before, it pays to
know a stock well. Gauging options volume by eye can be an effective way to
stalk for potential price action, but using the ratios provides for an easy way
to monitor the sentiment. Playing
the markets is not easy money. It is important to do your homework, and even
more important not to get caught up with the “herd.â€
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