Is There More Of A Pullback In Store For Bonds?

Stock index futures slumped today as jobless claims rose more than expected.
Initial jobless claims climbed to the highest level this year. Claims increased
by 12,000 to 430,000, or worse than the 404,000 estimate. Also overhanging on the
market is the looming war with Iraq and rising tension with North Korea. 

Today’s
jobs report could provide evidence that the geopolitical tensions are already
having an effect on the economy. In recent weeks, we’ve seen multi-year lows in
consumer confidence as well as a slowdown in manufacturing and services. Stock
index futures once again drifted lower ahead of President Bush’s speech tonight
and Han’s Blix report tomorrow. The March Dow futures
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dropped 92 to
7675, S&Ps dropped 8 to 821.50, and the NDX
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fell 4 to 984.00.

The March dollar index traded gained 0.09 to 98.37 after hitting another low.
However against the March euro
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the greenback got as weak as $1.10070
per euro.

Treasury futures pulled back today after a five-day run. Despite the worse-than-expected jobless claims, bonds declined as January factory orders jumped
2.1% to a 20-month high. Bond futures also declined ahead of tomorrow’s
unemployment rate report. Economists are forecasting an increase to 5.8%. The
30-year contract
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fell 13/32 to 114 19/32 and the 10-year contract
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fell 6/32 to 115 29/32.

Crude oil rose slightly ahead of Blix’s report tomorrow. The potential for a
showdown with Iraq and record low crude inventories have kept prices at near-record highs. April crude
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gained 0.39 to 37.

Gold also rose amid rising geopolitical tension. April gold
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gained 3.60 to 356.90.

Vincent
Mao