Keep An Eye On These Levels

June 19, 2003
Vincent Mao

Stocks
are decisively in the red this midday.Â Mixed economic data as well as
J.P. Morgan’s reduction on General Electric’s
(
GE |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) 2003 estimates have the
major indices in a broad-based retreat. Stocks briefly traded in the green but
have turned lower after the release of today’s data. Leading economic indicators
as well as the Philly Fed showed improvement but current account deficit rose to
a record high and the job market continued to be sluggish. The major indices are
each off by around 1%, with the Dow below 9,300 and S&P below 1,000. Former
leaders of the recent rally such as healthcare, biotechs, broker dealers, and
airlines are leading the decline. Bonds are modestly higher today after earlier
session lows.Â

In economic news, the Index of
Leading Economic Indicators in May came in at +1.0% vs. an expected
+0.7%. The was the second straight month of gains for the index and the
Conference Board added that “it is possible that these two consecutive increases
reflect the beginning of an upward trend.” Account Deficit for the first
quarter came in at -$136 billion vs. an expected -$141.5 billion. Weekly
jobless claims came in at 421K vs. an expected 425K. Claims fell by 13,000
this week while the four-week moving average declined by 3,000 to 432K , however
both still remain above the critical 400K level. Finally the Philly Fed
in June came in at a reading of 4.0 vs. an expected 4.1. The index showed that
manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region rose for the first month in
four.Â

The 10-year U.S. Note
isÂ +100 at 118 185.

The dollar is -0.23 at
93.38.

Gold is +5.10 at 362.90.

Crude OilÂ -0.41 at
28.36.

Volume is at 805,000,000
on the NYSE, and at 1,015,000,000 on the Nasdaq.

Market breadth is negative,
with NYSE declining issues over advancing issues by a ratio of 1.63, and downÂ
volume over up volume by a 2.26 ratio. Nasdaq declining issues over advancing
issues at 1.32, and up volume over down volume is at a 2.26 ratio.

Top Dow stocks are:

Stocks in the news:

CBRL Group
(
CBRL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
is higher by 4.5% on double its average volume after the company raised guidance
for the fourth quarter. The operator of Cracker Barrel and Logan’s Roadhouse
restaurants announced that due to lower cost of sales and lower insurance
claims, they now expect results to be 69 to 71 cents a share. Consensus
estimates were 67 cents a share.Â

Gtech Holdings
(
GTK |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
is higher by 3.39% on double its heavy volume after the company reported
better-than-expected first-quarter results. The company reported results of 68
cents a share compared to 49 cents a share for the same period a year ago. The
results also topped estimates by 5 cents. Looking forward, the company is
forecasting fiscal 2004 earnings between $2.55 to $2.65 a share up from prior
estimates of $2.40 to $2.50.Â

Michaels Stores
(
MIK |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
is higher by 3% after the company board of directors announced a quarterly
dividend of 10 cents a share. The dividend will be paid on July 30th to
shareholders of record on July 15. Separately the company announced that they
would repurchase up to a million common shares.Â

Oakley
(
OO |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) is higher
by 3.8% on heavy volume after Wedbush Morgan upgraded the stock from “hold” to
“buy”. Wedbush cited the company’s gross margins of 70% as well as an expected
pick up in sales due to the recovering economy. Â

Bed Bath & Beyond
(
BBBY |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
is lower by 5.50% on heavy volume despite reporting better-than-expected
earnings. The retailer reported first-quarter results of 19 cents a share, up
from year ago results of 15 cents a share. Bed Bath & Beyond beat estimates by a
penny. Â Â

Forest Labs
(
FRX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
is off by more than 11% on heavy volume after the company announced that its
experimental treatment of Alzheimer’s patients “failed to demonstrate
statistically significant differences.”

Pharmaceutical Resources
(
PRX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
is lower by 6% on double its average volume. The raised second-quarter guidance
to between 71 to 73 cents a share compared to analysts estimates of 64 cents a
share. The company also announced that CEO Ken Sawyer will retire effective July
1.Â Â

If you have any comments or
questions, please do not hesitate to email me.

Vincent Mao

Keep An Eye On These Levels

BUY THE FEAR, SELL THE GREED

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