Light Day
A shortened session today with a noon Central close. Expect extremely light volume, as this is typically the lightest volume day of the year.
However, with recent events we may, in fact, be busier than normal on this post-Turkey Day session. The market seems to like some of the election news that has been heard since Wednesday’s close, and we are trading up 1500 at 1338.
Keep in mind that on Wednesday we closed below our Oct. 18 low of 1324.80. This is not a bullish sign. Above 1338, the key area is going to be between 1341 and 1344. If we were to get above 1344, there is a possibility of a run into the 1350s. We think 1355 — barring, of course, any news — would hold all rallies today.
On the support side, we should see some light support between 1334 and 1332. Under that, 1328 all the way down to 1322 should be a support zone. We would be very surprised if the market does not trade back down into the 1320s this morning.
Any trade below Friday’s lows should lead to a move to 1315. If 1315 doesn’t hold, look for 1308. In general, for today’s session we would expect it to be contained within Friday’s range.
NASDAQ was trading up 75 at 2777. Same type of situation here: we have resistance between 2790 and 2810. If we get above 2810, look for 2850 to trade. We have resistance between 2845 and 2860. We do not think the market will trade above this level.
On the downside, look for light support between 2730 and 2720, and then the 2700-2680 area. Beneath 2680, we’re still looking for 2650 to trade. If the market were to fall below 2650 we would look for 2580 to trade.
One thing to keep in mind that was slightly bullish for the NASDAQ on Wednesday was we did not trade down to a cash level at settlement. We essentially settled the NASDAQ at fair value, whereas the S&P were unable to hold that and settled at the cash level.
Buyers were found in the NASDAQ at the close and this has carried over to this morning. We still think the Semiconductor Index
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PowerRating) is going to be the key. But again, today is not a day to get fooled by anything. We are looking for a very busy week next week. Therefore, we are not trading as a firm today.
The Dow settled below our key area on Wednesday, which is definitely a negative in the short run. According to the futures, it’s called to open about 70 points higher. We will essentially discard today’s data and we think next week you will see further pressure on the Dow.