Monday’s Intermediate Term Report
It was just
another week within the market’s ‘confirmed rally.’ Unfortunately for growth
stock players, some of our recent favorites did look like they were coming down
with something resembling stunted growth.
Both the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 were able to
forge fresh 52-week highs–but the reality of the tape showed an interesting
dichotomy in the two indices as the broader S&P index managed to hold onto
slight fractional gains of .3%, while many growth stocks ‘took it on the chin’,
and the Nasdaq, not too coincidentally finished off the week in the red–down
approximately 1.3%.
The ‘confirmed rally’ is still well
on its way–actually, for cautious bulls out there, the ebbing or pulling back
is ultimately just what we like to see within the context of a healthy market
environment. What do we mean by that? Well, as long as the broader indices stay
within 10% of their recent highs, volume remains constructive on both the dips
and rallies, and the majority of growth stock issues stick to carving out high
level bases no more than 35% deep (yikes!!)–then believe it or not, the market
remains qualified as a healthy market–and one in which we look to purchase
leading issues breaking out of sound weekly basing patterns.
 As it stands, with the Nasdaq
Composite off some 3.5% approximately and the S&P500 down less than 1.5% from
their respective highs–price as far as the averages are concerned is well
within bull territory–unfortunately, other very technically important factors
are telling this particular bull (Mr. Cautious Bull) to steer clear of any
position purchases coming into Monday’s trade. At this time, the warning signs
that I’m looking at are the ones that aren’t so widely touted, but are
noetheless vitally important to the true health of the ‘confirmed rally.’ I’m
referring to distribution versus accumulation characteristics, as well as the
health of our leading growth stock issues. On this front, warning signs continue
to loom. As stated last week–‘…it will be pointed out, that in considering
both price and volume, the Nasdaq’s performance is lagging, which gives us at a minimum a
reason to remain sharp and vigilant. We prefer to see the Nasdaq lead the
broader indices, due to the fact that many of our growth stocks come from this
index. After this past week’s technical rally, there remains light signs of
distribution. Couple this with volatility levels that are once again approaching
historic lows, and in this analyst’s opinion–the best advice at this juncture
is to maintain profitable positions with normal stop loss management, but don’t
get overly aggressive with breakouts at this juncture. For instance, if you take
two qualified triggers in a row, and find that the trades are not producing the
desired results–back off and look around for further signs as to the health of
the market. My personal attitude is to take the triggers, but initially look at
each new position as a daytrade (assume less than the traditional 7% stop loss
and use a money stop, perhaps one point for instance), until proven otherwise.
If the triggers you take continue to run favorably intraday, and the volume
suggests institutional interest, by all means stick with our regularly scheduled
program of swing and growth stock investing. But, if the triggers are working,
but ultimately not holding convincingly–take what the market gives you, or
decide ahead of time to stay on the sidelines until some more high-probability
trading is in our cross-hairs.’
Sometimes you get exactly what you
ask for, and unfortunately for growth stock investors, most breakouts that did
trigger this week–did not take hold in a convincing manner, consistent with
what one would expect from a healthy market environment. The indices made fresh
highs as mentioned, but as Jack once said, ‘That’s as good as it gets.’ Well,
that’s not entirely true, as the aggressive intraday player was likely to have
played a few breakout names out of harms way–but, this weeks action did confirm
in my opinion, that ultimately it paid to stand aside when it came to classic
growth stock investing. With clues already in place last week, most of the
trading opportunities that made the most ‘cents’ for our subscribers were reflective of
reversals off technical supports, as well as trading from the short side, and
not focused on the few names remaining, that might prove worthy of actual
breakout status.
Two in a row, volatility levels
still at historically low levels, deteriorating, divergent technicals in the
cash indices based on the 60-minute and daily charts, many more plungers than
flyers, and less growth stocks ‘looking ready’ or developed enough to
breakout–are all the clues that I need to sit my ‘hide’ on the side lines for
now. Hmm, actually throw in the weekly shooting star reversal bar, back thru the
S&P500 200-Week EMA, and now I have more than enough evidence. The technical
clues continue to tell me that we are in a period of consolidation or ‘pullback
mode’ within the market’s ‘confirmed rally.’ The signs that started to appear
last week, such as distribution figures, and the Nasdaq not leading the latest
leg up, have continued to add weight to my opinion of stressing caution before
looking for the next breakout trigger. For now, my attitude remains such, that
if breakouts are to trigger, one might look to tighten up the initial stop loss
to a hard dollar amount such as 1 point, rather than the looser 7% normally
associated with taking these types of trades. Until further testing of price
supports is apparent, and the health of the market’s ‘confirmed rally’ is
hopefully once more in a stronger position from which to launch a potential next
leg up it’s imperative that we continue to keep what is rightfully ours through
the use of proper money management techniques.
‘Oh relax’, all it takes is some
constructive price, volume, and pattern changes to clear the air, and get the
bull running again–but, it does look like the time is right to be patient
within the market’s ‘confirmed rally’, because odds favor a technical ebb as we
head into next week. Some key levels of technical importance (EMA/SMA,
Fibonacci, Price Supports, Gap Fills) that one might look for reversal patterns
to emerge from are:
S&P500 cash index: 1046 -1048Â
//Â 1039.50 – 1044Â //Â 1028 – 1035Â //Â 1017.5 –
1022.5
Nasdaq Composite:Â Â 1913 –
1925Â //Â 1892 – 1904Â // 1866 – 1881
I am personally looking for some
testing of these lower levels of technical support to happen before any fresh
purchases of growth stocks are made. This may or may not happen, but a large
part of trading is about preparation and anticipation of the high-probability
trade. We have to remember, that when the next round of classic triggers does
emerge out of our leading growth stock candidates–they will be doing just
that…leading. While the indices are ‘precariously’ testing levels of support,Â
many of the stocks we watch, will actually be breaking out to fresh highs, from
solid weekly basing patterns. The fact that I am seeing very few names ready to
make such a move right now, is a key factor in my analysis that ‘some work’ does
in fact need to be done by Mr. Market, before we can ultimately head higher.
It is our own personal risk
tolerance levels within the market waves that ultimately dictate how well we
fare during both the great investing climates, as well as those that will be
considered less-than-perfect ‘sailing conditions. While the markets are sailing
high, we also realize that between the peaks, troughs do exist, and it’s always
in our best interest to stay prepared for whatever comes our way within the
‘confirmed rally.’
New Category:
Swing Trade Setups: Potential
position plays that are expected to last 2 to 7 trading days, using key
technical levels for entry. These stocks do not necessarily meet all of our
stringent Intermediate Term requirements, but are demonstrating many of the same
strong criteria. Due diligence on the individual traders part is an absolute
requirement!!! Proper money management rules are emphasized in scaling out of
profitable positions, as is, the setting of prudent stop losses, on the
establishment of any positions taken. The list is not maintained on a weekly
basis as trades are considered, at time of entry, short term in nature.
None Today.
| Company Name |
Symbol | 12 Month RS |
Price | Pivot +.10 |
Technical Perspective |
| Yahoo | ( YHOO | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
86 | 42.91 | 44.87 | 9-Week high level base |
| Genentech | ( DNA | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
83 | 85.85 | 87.85 – 88.10 | 11-Week cup w/ handle |
| American Pharmaceutical | ( APPX | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
87 | 35.48 | 39.40 | 11-Week ‘deep’ Cup w/triple handle pivot |
| Dot Hill Systems | ( HILL | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
95 | 16.06 | 18.05 | 3-Month High level base w/ right side consolidation entry |
| UTI Worldwide | ( UTIW | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
57 | 27.65 | 38.50 | 3-Month high level base |
| Kroll | ( KROL | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
41 | 24.66 | 25.26 | 4-Month Reverse Head & Shoulder |
| eBay | ( EBAY | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
57 | 55.90 | 57.19 | 2-Month High level base w/ right side pivot entry |
Watch List Action:
As always, the search goes on for top stocks meeting our fundamental and
technical criteria. Stocks forming bases or handles are monitored, and put on
our watchlist, and then moved to our position list of recent breakouts, on price
triggers above resistance pivots.
Stocks Building A Base
| Company Name |
Symbol | 12 Month RS |
Price | Technical condition |
Average Volume in 000’s |
Pivot |
| Aaipharma | ( AAII | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
58 | 18.87 | 4.5 Month lateral high level base | 407 | 20.15 |
| Chicago Bridge & Iron | ( CBI | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
67 | 27.50 | 4 Month Lateral base | 179 | 28.60 |
Stocks Forming A Handle
| Company Name |
Symbol | 12 Month RS |
Price | Technical condition |
Average Volume in 000’s |
Pivot |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
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Recent Breakouts
We monitor the action of Recent Breakouts as an
indicator of the market health for IT traders. When breakouts are acting well,
this is a good sign for the likelihood of further sustainable breakouts. When
breakouts are failing, IT traders should be even more cautious.
| Company Name |
Symbol | 12 Month RS |
Price | Average Volume-50 Day in 000’s |
Pivot | 52-Week High |
| Apollo Group |
( APOL | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
56 | 66.49 | 2,068 | 46.89
|
72.89 |
| Coach Inc. |
( COH | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
83 | 36.70 | 1,641 | 14.18 | 40.84 |
| Boston Scientific |
( BSX | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
71 | 35.41 | 5,592 | 23.83 | 36.47 |
| International Game Technology |
( IGT | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
77 | 34.10 | 2,627 | 18.71 | 35.39 |
| UCBH Holdings |
( UCBH | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
77 | 38.70 | 241 | 22.60 | 40.10 |
| Corinthian Colleges |
( COCO | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
61 | 56.80 | 913 | 43.09 | 66.94 |
| Nextel | ( NXTL | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
85 | 25.37 | 15,991 | 15.85 | 26.34 |
| Gtech Holdings |
( GTK | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
76 | 49.24 | 496 | 37.05 or 40.80 |
51.19 |
| Centex | ( CTX | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
87 | 110.66 | 1,239 | 59.80 & 79.52 |
112.60 |
| Countrywide Financial | ( CFC | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
85 | 107.70 | 2,411 | 78..84 | 108.88 |
| Whole Foods Market | ( WFMI | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
47 | 63.09 | 759 | 56.34 | 66.13 |
| Marvel Enterprises | ( MVL | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
85 | 26.70 | 1,032 | 26.05 | 31.95 |
| Sharper Image | ( SHRP | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
63 | 29.18 | 332 | 27.85 | 32.70 |
| Garmin | ( GRMN | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
75 | 53.55 | 590 | 46.85 | 57.84 |
| Zebra Technologies | ( ZBRA | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
64 | 61.74 | 522 | 56.18 | 64.43 |
| Constellation Brands | ( STZ | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
55 | 33.01 | 556 | 31.90 – 32.10 | 34.65 |
| St. Jude Medical | ( STJ | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
63 | 61.90 | 1,616 | 58.89 | 64 |
| Gevity HR | ( GVHR | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
97 | 23.25 | 334 | 20.25 | 24.34 |
| Invitrogen | ( IVGN | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
83 | 66.39 | 912 | 63.15 | 69.98 |
| San Juan Basin | ( SJT | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
55 | 20.57 | 181 | 19.18 and 20.12 | 20.75 |
Breakouts that may
require extra diligence. Those issues that are near pivot entries or 15%
or more, from established highs.
This list accounts for those issues that have performed strongly, but may
require position management due to deteriorating technical condition before
pivot price is reached. If an issue pull backs 36% or more from highs, the stock
will be removed from our lT lists, so we can make room for more compelling trade
candidates.
| Company Name |
Symbol | 12 Month RS |
Price | Average Volume-50 Day |
Pivot | 52-Week High |
| Axcan Pharmaceutical | ( AXCA | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
39 | 14.64 | 234 | 14.87 | 15.30 |
| Teva Pharmaceutical | ( TEVA | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
56 | 59.09 | 2,428 | 61.66 | 62.35 |