Overheard On The Street
Here’s what they’re saying at mid-day:
Robert Robbins, Market Strategist, The
Robinson Humphrey Co.: “I’m seeing the oversold condition of the Nasdaq 100
and the Nasdaq Composite. If you look at a downtrend channel over the last two
months, you’ll see that today’s low and yesterday’s close are very close to a
downtrend support line. So, the trend is down, but within that trend we seem to
have gone a little too far too fast, and it would be very easy to have a
counter-trend rally in the tech stocks in general, and in the Nasdaq in
particular. I think the Fed rate cut is a critical issue for the overall stock
market, as well as for tech. The announcement of the NAPM number yesterday was
the lowest since April, 1991.
“Well, April of 1991 was essentially a recessionary number. The
recession ended officially April 1st, but when they reported that number it was
probably in the first part of April and therefore reflected a recession. I don’t
think we have a recession here in the broad economy because we don’t have two
consecutive quarters of down real GDP either now or on the horizon I don’t
think. But the manufacturing economy is in a recessionary mode. It is a
significant part of the economy, and I expect the Fed to cut by the end of the
week. I expect a quarter of a point now and a quarter of a point at the meeting
at the end of the month. If things deteriorate rapidly, then they may cut a half
of a point at the end of the month.”
Brian Belski, Fundamental Market
Strategist, U.S. Bancorp/Piper Jaffray: “The 25% to 30% returns of the last
three to four years, coupled with the New Economy craze, spoiled investors and
forced them to chase momentum and performance instead of fundamentals. Buying
stocks long term equated to a month or two at the most, with the instant-gratification quotient high when initiating positions. Unfortunately, that
instant gratification has turned into piles of losses this year, causing
emotional selling and tax-loss selling at the end of the year that only
accentuated and already oversold correction.”