Overheard On The Street
Here’s what they’re saying at mid-day:
Tony Cecin, Director of Equity Trading,
U.S. Bancorp/Piper Jaffray: “I think basically it’s just everyone sitting
on their hands waiting until 2:00 p.m. East Coast time, and I don’t think
you’re going to see anything of any magnitude before then at all. My own
personal bias is that they’ll do 50 because I don’t think Greenspan’s got the
kind of personality where he’s going to do 75 and tip the market off that he’ll
give them what it wants.”Â
Robin Griffiths, Chief Technical
Strategist, HSBC: “The bear phase is global and the wealth effect negative.
As the market already has taken for granted that a 50 basis point rate cut is
imminent, it will take more like a 75 basis point move to gain its attention.
For six months there will be a rally in the S&P to 1,550 and the Dow Jones
to12,000. There will then need to be a subsequent decline into next year
terminating by October 2002. The Asian markets are all vulnerable to be driven
down by the weakness of the yen. Japan will dictate when the Asian region can
start to improve. The outlook in Japan is terrible and indeed climactic. Our
work points to the final drop down with the capitulation taking place within the
next few months. Topix back to at least 1,000 and the Nikkei making new post
bubble lows.”
Paul Rabbitt, President,
RabbittAnalytics.com: “The general market should begin looking across the
earnings valley to a recovery in 2002. However,
a problem still exists for technology. Consensus
earnings estimates are falling rapidly for 2002 in this sector.
Investors who are hoping for a ‘V’-shaped technology bottom are likely to
be very disappointed. We remain
under-weighted in technology. Technology
issues are more likely to go through an extended period of basing (an ‘L’
bottom) that could stretch into next year. We
are particularly positive on energy, finance, and utilities.”