Siebel? No, See-Bear
Each morning this
list will contain those stocks with the potential to make a quick but tradable
move in the first hour. The information listed here is designed for the
trader who catches the early morning momentum, between the first five and 45
minutes of trading. Many stocks open each morning, run for several points and
then reverse. I will cover stocks with this potential and highlight possible
reversal points and resistance areas. These points need to be monitored closely,
as the stocks may turn quickly here. Be ready to lock in profits quickly.
Morning Outlook
Watch for a turnaround in the first 10-30
minutes of trading. Keep an eye on the stocks that gap the most in the morning.
Use the Nasdaq tracking stock (QQQ)
or futures as leading indicators.
One To Watch:
(
SEBL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
Siebel Systems
(
SEBL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) has achieved leadership status in the software
group. Unfortunately for Siebel, the software sector is not exactly popular with
investors at the moment, just look at Oracle
(
ORCL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
On Monday, Siebel broke below the trendline that had been supporting it for
several months. Not only did it gap lower and trade down throughout the day, but
it did so on 14 million shares more than normal (the average is 6.5 million).
Although it attempted to make a recovery intraday, by breaking
out from a five-minute consolidation pattern, it sold off toward the close, losing
over 4 points in about five minutes. This type of weakness may carry over on
Tuesday, providing a potential short opportunity.
The weakness in the stock is not limited to the daily chart, but
it is also reflected on the bigger-picture weekly chart. The broken trendline
on the daily charts is actually quite significant. So far, the potential
breakout that formed near its recent highs is now a double-top formation.
Set your alerts near Monday’s lows and watch for a breakdown. In
a weak market, Siebel
(
SEBL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) is likely to trend south.