Trend May be Suspect, But is Still Up
| PREVIOUS POSITIONS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market |
Long/Short |
Enter | size=2 color=000000>Exit | size=2 color=000000>P/L (per contract) |
| Dec. 99 T-bonds | Long | 114-05 | 115 | $843.75 |
| Dec. 99 S&Ps | Short | 1401 | 1409 | -$2000 |
| Dec. 99 Swiss franc | Long | .6550 | .6500 | -$625 |
CURRENT POSITIONS (AS OF 11/19/99) |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market | Date | Long/Short | Enter | Stop | size=2 color=000000>Target |
| Dec. 99 T-bonds | 11/17/99 | Long | 113-28 | 112-28 | 114-15 |
| Dec. 99 S&Ps | – | Flat | – | – | – |
| Dec. 99 Swiss franc | 11/8/99 | Short | .6478 | .6590 | – |
Note: All price levels are approximate.
T-bond futures
| We still view the trend as up, but feel it is becoming suspect |
The December T-bond [USZ9>USZ9] was unchanged today as their were no economic reports of interest. Because the market is a little weaker than expected, we have moved our profit target down today to 114 15/32. We think crude oil could have something to do with this–the rise is starting to catch the market’s attention. We still view the trend as up but feel it is becoming suspect. Stay tuned.
 |
| Figure 1. December T-bond futures (USZ9), 15-minute bar. Source: Quote.com.
|
Stock index futures
| Keep in mind that moves like this are the exception and not the rule |
The December S&Ps [SPZ9>SPZ9] have been in a holding pattern since the big move up. We are on the sidelines for now, but we will keep our bias to the short side as we feel this market is over-extended. This rally has been quite impressive, but keep in mind that moves like this are the exception and not the rule.
Currency futures
The December Swiss franc [SFZ9>SFZ9] was flat today after yesterday’s big sell-off. The growth prospects for Europe are still lower than those of the U.S., which should continue to keep this market in a downtrend. The strong U.S. stock market is also keeping pressure on the market.
Note: The next trade will be done using ECU futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The liquidity has increased there sufficiently to trade this contract instead of the Swiss franc futures.
 |
| Figure 2. December Swiss franc futures (SFZ9), 60-minute bar. Source: Quote.com.
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Next update: Monday, November 22, 1999.
(Check “Today’s Schedule” every day on our home page to find out about additional updates.)