Trouble Zone
For S&Ps to get out of immediate trouble, we need to get above 1455.50. S&Ps were up 500 at 1450.
On the way up, we see 1452, 1453.50, 1455.50, 1456.50, 1458.50, a key area at 1459.50 and then a major area at 1462.50-1463, which is where we fell out of bed yesterday. On the downside, we see 1449, 1447, 1445, 1443.50, a key area at 1439, then 1435.50, and a major area at 1431.
The 1455 area is crucial. If we can’t get above it, we could see a drop to the 1415-area. The Morning Pivot is 1446.50 to 1448.
The NASDAQ was up 42.50 at 3660. The market is spending a lot of time in the key zone between 3650 and 3600. We have now been battling on the lows made between 3620 and 3600.
Yesterday the market had ample reason to break 3600 and did not do it. The main culprit of the down draft was Cisco
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What this means is the second-tier stocks will be the key moving forward. If they can sustain the upside momentum seen over the past few weeks, the market should attempt to find a low within the next 2-3 weeks, leading to a Q4 rally.
For today, we see support between 3635 and 3620, then look for a trade down to 3600. For the market to look bad we need to get under 3590. Below 3590, we should trade down to 3530. Along the way, 3555 to 3548 is key support.
If we trade below 3530, the next target is 3476, our August low. On the upside, the first bout of resistance is 3677 all the way to 3700. Above 3700, the market is looking better, which projects a move to 3780. Along the way, 3745-3752 will be critical. To get above 3780, look for 3820, at which point we would expect the rally would peter out.
The Dow was hammered yesterday right down to our support area. We are starting to be near oversold territory in the short-term basis. We think a decent entry point for longs would be 10,550 in the cash for a run to 11,000.
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