Well, Well, Well
Let’s take a look at the mindset of
the amateur trader: This person sent an email to the editors of
TradingMarkets.com last week after my commentary about the severe downturn I
forecasted in the Dow Jones Industrials.
Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2001 7:41 PM
To: suggestions@tradingmarkets.com
Subject: (no subject)
“On this day March 8th, I find it amaziing that your
supposed million dollar a year professional trader the “G” man
dosent have the balls to write a commentary after his predition on the dows
collapse and his wonderful short sale on Phillip Morris. A word of advise in
my 12 years of trading is never fight thr tape until it turns. So tell the G
man to have some balls after an 6oo point move on the dow. Good job on your
advise and by the way i would like to see your trading account.”
The grammatical and spelling errors were left intact so as not
to detract from the integrity of the original email.
First of all, had my secret admirer bothered to read the note
under my commentary page, he would know that I was filming a live television
show on WebFn on Thursday, March 8, which conflicted with my normal posting
time. At any rate, let’s look at the facts and put the emotions and personal
feelings aside. Let’s look at what the markets did after I put my neck on the
line last week and warned the world about the danger in the Dow and the
perfectly orchestrated bull trap that was in the final stages of sucking in the
sideline money that Abby and friends desired so badly.
Before I go on–let me point out an error I made in this
chart. Today was the fifth-biggest point loss in the Dow–not the biggest.
Fortunately for us, we were able to identify the topping
activity and institutional distribution that was taking place in the Dow and
were not hurt by this drop. In fact, we profited handsomely. Additionally, my
commentary from this weekend detailed the clear Dow topping pattern on a weekly
timeframe.
The retailing index looks like it may have hell to pay now. We
were able to detect its trend reversal and failure to overtake the uptrending
regression line on two separate attempts. My secret admirer points out my
ongoing feud with Philip Morris. Clearly,
(
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its technicals as it has continued its relentless advance, only to fall quite
significantly today. My secret admirer fails to point out all of the successful
market calls that myself and my readers were able to profit tremendously on. To
date, we were able to make huge profits on:
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brokers/banks, specialty apparel stocks like
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shorts we initiated on the technology “glamour” names when everyone loved them
and pushed them as longs.
The bottom line: I have chosen to approach this commentary in
a “no-nonsense” manner in which I will never hide my feelings or my intentions.
I am a trader who lives and breathes the market and wants to help others see
through the hype, games, and traps we are confronted with every day. I hope my
work has helped many of you make money as well as develop a more cynical view of
the equities markets.
I would never disclose my trading profits publicly as a true
professional must remain humble to both of his Masters: God and The Market.
Further, at times like these we must also be sensitive to the immense pain and
loss that is no doubt being experienced throughout the country at this time. I
am very proud of the fact that many of you who viewed my column with an open
mind and an objective mind may have been spared a lot of the pain and
destruction that has resulted from this most vicious ongoing bear market. I’m
quite sure many of you have actually made profits during this most trying time.
Unlike our secret admirer suggests, our ba$$s are alive and well. As the foreign
markets should get hammered once again overnight, the odds are probably stacking
up in favor of continued selling after tomorrow’s open as there will undoubtedly
be margin selling galore. Tighten your stops on any shorts as the Nasdaq is in
totally uncharted territory on the oversold side and could lay waste to the
shorts very quickly. The Dow, on the other hand, looks to have further downside
ahead.
Have a great night.
Goran
Random Musings: Tom Galvin, DLJ’s “cheerleader
extraordinaire” conjures up images of Sally Fields giving her “You
like me… you really, really like me!” speech. This guy just wants to be
loved like a cuddly teddy bear. After today stating “the market is in an
irrationally pessimistic mode”, we can only reply by asking Sir Hypemaster
Galvin “what about the irrational optimism you have tried to reassert for
the past 3200 Nasdaq points?” You may keep your faulty opinions and views
to yourself in the future.