What The Smart Money Is Doing Right Now

March 18, 2003
Daniel Beighley

The
major averages moved mostly sideways for the session with with slight
gains posted. A “no change” decision from the FOMC meeting had little
effect on price action, as news headlines were dominated by the countdown to war
with Iraq. Recent buying in the market suggests a considerable amount of short-covering
has likely taken place, though we may not get an indication of real buying
interest until we see more upside. War is not considered to be a predictable
affair, so smart money these days remains sidelined. On an encouraging note, the
bellwether semiconductors and broker/dealers posted nice gains. All three major
indexes are parked above their 50-day moving averages.

In economic news, housing
starts disappointed with 1.622 million vs. an expected 1.728 million, and building
permits came in at 1.786 million vs. an expected 1.745 million.

The Ten Year Note
(
TYH3 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) was -170 at 114 005.

The US dollar
(
DXH3 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) was +0.09 at 101.40.

Volume was average,
with the NYSE coming in at 1,519,063,000 and the Nasdaq at 1,589,560,000.

Market breadth was
positive, with NYSE advancing issues over declining
issues by a ratio of 1.19, and up volume over down volume by a 2.18 ratio.
Nasdaq advancing issues over declining issues came in at 1.24, and up volume
beat down volume by a 2.45 ratio.

The
VIX
was -0.68 at 35.78. The TRIN
was +0.34 at 0.54.

Topping the Dow were:

Stocks in the news:

Personal computer maker Gateway
(
GTW |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), -2.92% at 2.33, announced it will lay off 1,900 workers and close 76
retail stores in an effort to save $400 million per year.

Doughnut retailer Krispy
Kreme
(
KKD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), -5.29% at 33.10, posted fourth-quarter earnings $0.01 ahead
of expectations with profits of $0.19 per share. Profits were down 32% from a
year ago.

Catalog retailer Williams-Sonoma
(
WSM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), -4.50% at 21.20, beat its fourth-quarter earnings expectations by
$0.01 with profits of $0.67 per share, though said earnings for the fiscal
first-quarter will come in lower than expected.

Oil and gas operations company Conoco
Philips
(
COP |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), -0.15% at 50.92, was downgraded by First Albany to
“sell” with a new price target of $30.

Mobile home maker Winnebago
Industries
(
WGO |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), -17.84% at 25.05, missed its second-quarter earnings
expectations by $0.02 with profits of $0.64 per share.

Transportation company C.H.
Robinson
(
CHRW |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), -1.79% at 32.11, was downgraded by Morgan Stanley to
“underweight” from “equal-weight”.

Also in the transportation
business, Expeditors International of Washington
(
EXPD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), +0.25% at
35.61, had coverage initiated on it by Morgan Stanley at
“underweight”.

Semiconductor equipment maker Applied
Materials
(
AMAT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), +3.12% at 13.54, announced it will eliminate 2,000
jobs to lower costs. The company is the world’s largest maker of computer chip
production equipment.

Food processing company Kraft
Foods
(
KFT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), -2.59% at 28.93, was upgraded by Banc of America to
“buy” from “neutral”.

Household and personal product
maker Procter and Gamble
(
PG |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), +1.30% at 86.62, raised its
third-quarter guidance to 13-14% earnings per share growth vs. a consensus of
11-13%.

Computer hardware company Tech
Data
(
TECD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), +5.52% at 24.25, beat its fourth-quarter earnings per
share by $0.03 with profits of $0.58 per share.

danielb@tradingmarkets.com

What The Smart Money Is Doing Right Now

BUY THE FEAR, SELL THE GREED

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