What Would Coach Landry Do?

July 6, 2000
Greg Kuhn

It’s third down and 11 yards to go to
make a first down. Coach Landry (former head football coach for the Dallas
Cowboys, God rest his soul) isn’t pacing the sidelines, isn’t screaming at his
wide receiver for dropping the last pass that would have gotten his team across
midfield to a first down.

No. Coach Landry, if you remember him,
just looked straight ahead, with his trademark Fedora shading his eyes — what a
handsome chap. Although the wheels were certainly churning in his head about
what to do, he held as stoic a look on his face whatever down it was, or
whatever the score.

Is the Nasdaq Composite about to give
up the ghost to its trading range and succumb to a continuation of its big,
bottoming process? Did Wednesday’s onslaught call into question what I called
into question in my last go around? That Friday’s heavy volume surge was more
quarter-end hocus pocus by the big boys than anything relevant to the real
supply/demand equation?

We shall likely soon find out.

For now, however, look stoic. It may
be third down and 11-to-go, but that’s why we play the downs. If we don’t make
the first on the next play (i.e., the Naz implodes from here) what should we
do? What would one of the best coaches in NFL history — Tom Landry — do?

Let’s see. If we don’t make it, in
fact don’t make any yardage on the next play, and the situation becomes
fourth-and-eleven, and not we’re not even across midfield, we punt and play
defense. There will always be another set of downs to play offense. For there is
no “sudden death” in the stock market. But there’s always another set
of downs.

What am I saying?

If we began at first down and 10 yards
to go, third-and-eleven means we made no progress, and even lost a bit of
yardage. The odds of converting this situation to another set of downs is
certainly lower than if it were, say, third down and two yards to go. But not
impossible.

Anyway, enough with my gibberish. But this is the way you have to think in this game.
Let’s get into why you’re really reading this column.

Forget who’s ever downgrading or
upgrading. Take the situation at hand as it appears.

So, if the leaders continue lower from
here, will they just pass the baton off to another set of potential leaders
waiting in the wings? Or will further downside suggest further downside for the
rest of the market?

Remember, these have been the only
plays to this point.

But it’s still third-and-eleven.
They’re not broken yet. Look stoic.

But while these guys circled the
runway in holding patterns Wednesday, another failed breakout dotted the
landscape.

Telcom Semiconductor
(
TLCM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
which broke out from a 14-week cup-with-handle base on heavy volume two weeks
ago was the latest to succumb. Though it certainly wasn’t acting right ever
since its breakout (and this isn’t arm-chair quarterbacking, I bought on the
breakout and sold it before Wednesday’s implosion), Wednesday’s “kerplunk”
put the final nail in its coffin.

But how could it hold? What, with the
weight of one man’s word (some analyst with a major firm) delivering a crushing blow to the whole semiconductor group Wednesday.

The brightest star did shine from the
North in the form of biotechs — said to be Wednesday’s safe haven. Go figure.

Bottom line: It’s been tricky,
difficult, potentially maddening, or all three, over the past month. The select
names that have worked, have really worked. If you owned them, wonderful. Just
remember, however, bears and bulls make money, but pigs get slaughtered. Obey
the sell rules. If you bought many of the failed names, like I did, I hope like
heck you obeyed your stop-loss discipline. Some of them are getting crushed, or
will get crushed.

If you want to survive in this game,
you have to know when to punt. That’s what that guy usually standing on the
sidelines with the funny-looking face mask does for us. Never like to punt, but
we have to pay someone to do it.

It’s third-and-eleven, the play has
been called into the quarterback. Let’s huddle up!

God, if the broadcasters call another
“TV timeout” again (i.e., continuation of the trading range) I think
I’ll go back to my vacation.

Speaking of which, thanks to
subscriber Paul O’Gara, I’m happy to inform you that there is indeed a boardwalk
in Portugal. Geez, Jordy’s dad just didn”t get it!

Television
Appearance: I will be
a guest on CNNfn Friday July 7, at 7:15 a.m. EST.

What Would Coach Landry Do?

BUY THE FEAR, SELL THE GREED

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