Will We See More Follow Through In Stocks?

Volatility returned to stock index futures today as
the market got hit with doses of bad and good news. Stock index futures got off
to a very poor start after the February non-farm payroll numbers came in much
worse than expected. The report revealed a loss of 308,000 jobs, while the
market had expected a small gain of 6,000 jobs. This was the biggest monthly
loss in jobs since November 2001. Meanwhile the unemployment rate rose to 5.8%
from 5.7%.

Dow futures surpassed their Feb. 13 lows and showed triple-digit losses but
those losses were later erased after an unconfirmed report said that two of
Osama bin Laden’s sons were detained. Another reported said that US and
Pakistani forces were tracking a caravan that could be carrying bin Laden.
Futures relished the news and even finished modestly in the green. Short
covering also contributed to today’s gains as many traders do not want to be
caught short over the weekend if bin Laden is captured. The March S&P
futures
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gained 7 to 828.60, Dow futures
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gained 60 to
7735, and NDX
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gained 2 to 986.50.

The dollar also fell to near a four-year low against the euro after the
dismal jobs data. The March dollar index
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slipped 0.30 to 98.10. The
dollar also weakened to $1.10060 per euro basis the March euro contract.

Treasury futures feasted on the non-farm payroll numbers.  The 30 year
contract
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rose 11/32 to 114 30/32 and the 10-year contract
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gained 9/32 to 116 5/32.

Crude oil rose despite Blix’s report that there has been an
“acceleration” of cooperation from the Iraqis. However the US and UK
proposed an ultimatum for Iraq to to disarm by March 17. April crude
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rose 0.75 to 37.78.

April gold
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dropped 6 to 350.90. The metal gave back gains made
earlier this week.

Vincent Mao