Make Sure You Factor This Into All Your Investment And Trading Decisions
What are we supposed to believe in this stock market
anymore?! Today and yesterday, the Nasdaq made a strong push back
above its 50-day moving average on very strong volume. In today’s column, we’ll
look at the facts and I’ll share how I view the current environment moving
forward.
This strong move is
good to see, but it is interesting to see how it occurred only after the market
produced very strong signs that it may have headed lower. On 4/6, 4/13, 4/15
and 4/20 we saw blatant distribution in the Nasdaq. These four examples happened
over only a 10-day trading period and could easily have been enough to send the
market diving lower. Additionally, we saw Taser
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last growth stocks standing from the rally that began last March of 2003. Other
names like the Chinese Internet group and Netflix
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usually the last to get hit.
The Nasdaq was
quickly approaching its 200-day moving average and there were not too many
stocks willing to stand up and rally without it. Even
Yahoo!
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was starting to decline.
^next^
Technically, the
Nasdaq was still in a confirmed rally that began on 3/24, but it was starting to
look real shaky. At that point, it is normal to hold off any new buys, get rid
of any even to negative positions and wait for the market to firm up or
officially end the rally. It would end the rally by taking out the lows and most
likely its 200-day moving average.
At this point,
following the last two days’ action, the rally has not ended. In fact, we are
still in the confirmed rally and things are looking strong again. Is it time to
buy again? Maybe. This market has been choppy and it is probably going to
continue. Overall, we are probably going higher, but to avoid being shaken out
of positions, it is important to pick appropriate buy spots and take profits as
rallies get extended.
My view on this
market is that of conservative investing. This isn’t a time to go in full
margin. It is a time to go in, but in strong stocks that are at or near 52-week
highs; if you are a growth investor. All-time highs seem to have been more
volatile, and may need to be played more cautiously. The goal is to not lose
right now. Even though the market is slowly going higher, the environment seems
very similar to several other times in our stock market’s history: 1932 and 1968
to name a couple. Money can be made, but only after realizing that making a
killing may require far too much risk to achieve.
We have seen quality
leadership out of several groups and that seems to continue. Internets have
already made a big move following eBay‘s
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earnings. Telecom stocks received a nice boost from
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announcement. Education stocks have been acting well, and although most names
are quite extended, such as University of Phoenix
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eCollege
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This market is
choppy, so that should be factored into all investment and trading decisions, in
my opinion. We have seen large gains quickly erased. Sell-offs such as the
Nasdaq over the last week can be recovered as well. Overall, we are probably
moving higher, but it may very well come into some very choppy trading as we
have been seeing in 2004.
Somebody may have
realized this as my Bear Market/Trading-Range market strategy,
Breakout and Bolt, which has been doing well lately.
Have a Great Weekend,
timt@tradingmarkets.com