A Houdini Market
Market Trend:
Down
Market Outlook:
Possible short term rally — Bottom Hunting in Full Swing
Sector Watch:
Trucking (+)
Continue to “Wait†to Cash
Possible short term rally — Bottom Hunting in Full Swing
Trucking (+)
The Broad Market Outlook
Thus far, this has been a “Houdini
Market†—
lots
of false bottoms that make your money disappear.Â
Now, in the wake of last week’s action, many people are ready to declare that
the real
bottom has been
finally been reached. Here’s the Siren song attempting to lure you back in:
The
market got hammered by wave after wave of bad news. But after flirting with the
September lows, Mr. Market has held up.  So…we’ve probably hit bottom.
The more subtle reality, however, is
that the market has been getting both bad
and
good news. Last week, for
example, sandwiched between the Worldcom and Xerox horror shows, we got a very
nice upside GDP surprise and a nice little bump in personal income. We also got
a smaller-than-expected drop in consumer confidence and both the European and
Asian markets finished nicely upward on good economic news of their own.
The small point here is that if you read beyond the headlines, there is still a
very interesting and much more textured battle going on. At issue is whether the
economy will recover or succumb to a double dip recession. If it does recover,
will it grow a modest 2%-3% or a more robust 4%-5%? Â
very interesting and much more textured battle going on. At issue is whether the
economy will recover or succumb to a double dip recession. If it does recover,
will it grow a modest 2%-3% or a more robust 4%-5%? Â
The hurdles this fledgling economic
recovery must overcome include our now familiar litany of Macrowaves: The War
and Terrorism Tax, the Evil Less Twins (the JobLESS and ProfitLESS recovery),
the Weak Sister Dollar, and an Enronitis which has now morphed into a Crisis in
Corporate Confidence.
But here’s the really bigger point: If
you really want to time this market bottom right, you don’t want to be the first
one in — only to fall once again through a false Houdini bottom. Remember the
pioneers are the ones with arrows in their backs.
Rather, you should continue to
weight/wait towards cash UNTIL the market finally declares itself — it may only
take a few days once the action begins. And as you continue to weight/wait, do
your homework — finding prime targets with both strong fundamental and technical
characteristics.
And here’s our final twist on another favorite
cliché:
anyone who accurately does predict the
true market bottom will be both lucky
and good. The
good part comes in careful analysis of the technical
characteristics of the market and fundamental macrowave trends. The lucky part
comes from the fact
that any prediction will be driven by events —
from war and terrorism to drought and a new wave of accounting scandals — that
have yet to happen and which are out of control (and sight!) of the forecaster.
Our bottom line: The market could very
well see a nice little rally this week on optimism that a bottom has been
reached. But if you trade on this optimism, just remember that a Houdini bottom
may be lurking.
The Macro Data Market
Movers
It will be both a light and heavy week
on the macroeconomic calendar front. The light part is that very few reports
that are coming out. The heavy part is that we will see at least three key
reports that have the power to significantly move the market.
We start the week with on Monday with
construction spending and, much more importantly,
the ISM Index
— an excellent barometer of
the supply side of the economy. It will be interesting if we get a downward ISM
surprise — as the Chicago regional index so signaled we might last Friday.Â
We end the week with the
Jobs Report.Â
The big question is whether the unemployment rate will inch back up or continue
to inch its way down from last month. We have no priors on this but the
consensus calls for a spike up. We think the outlook is more mixed so this
report is likely not something to trade on — OR be
caught on the wrong side of.
Mid-week, we get factory
orders plus a third major report —
Auto Sales. This
should give us a further glimpse into the consumer side of the equation. On
Wednesday, the ISM also weighs in with its service sector index — an
increasingly important report as our country continues its structural shift from
a manufacturing to service sector economy.
Sector Watch: Transportation
is Moving
My colleague David Aloyan’s
proprietary sector model shows a bullish sign: One of the traditional key
leading indicators of recovery, the trucking sub-sector of the transportation
sector, is moving well. No doubt this sector is also being helped by the
substitution of surface for air transport in the wake of 9/11.Â
At any rate, David’s chart shows that the 3-day crossed above the 7-day SMA, and
prices are making new highs. Stochastics are turned up, and the MACD is above
the zero line. He recommends playing this with a “basket†of the following
strong names of the group:
Yellow Corp.
(
YELL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
Knight
Transportation
(
KNGT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),Â
Arkansas Best Corp.
(
ABFS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
Cnf Transportation
(
CNF |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
Covenant Transport
(
CVTI |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
prices are making new highs. Stochastics are turned up, and the MACD is above
the zero line. He recommends playing this with a “basket†of the following
strong names of the group:
