A Tale Of Two Semis

• April 11, 2002
• Derrick Hobbs

Semiconductor Holders
(
SMH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) are at a key price
support decision on the daily chart from 41.64-43.02. The decline we have
been in since March 8 has been 7.4 points, while the previous decline was to the
tune of 8.5 points. Fibonacci time analysis is pointing to April 16 for a
potential cycle low on the daily chart as well. 

So, with the overall trend since
Sept. 27 still up, I’m looking to join the longs if we can successfully test
and hold this price support zone. However, before we can committed to the long
side of SMH, I would like to see the 60 minute trend broken (see chart below).
If SMH continues the 60 minute trend and fails to reverse at our price support
zone, it’s likely to see the Feb. 22 low tested and broken. 

So, which chart
will ultimately be right? We will soon see. Regardless, it is definitely a tale
of two semis.