Apathy
About
all you can say about yesterday is apathy. Once
again, NYSE volume was below average at 1.172 billion, a volume ratio of 24, and
breadth negative at -782. It was red across all major sectors and trend down all
day for the major indices. The SPX
(
$SPX.X |
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PowerRating) was -1.5%, the Dow
(
$INDU |
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PowerRating) -1.2%, and the NDX
(
$NDX.X |
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PowerRating) -2.5%.
The smokestack stocks
took a larger whack than usual, with the
(
XLB |
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PowerRating)s, which is the basic
industries’ SPDR, -2.5%, the
(
XLK |
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PowerRating)s, which is the tech proxy, was -2.5%,
while the semi HOLDR, the
(
SMH |
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PowerRating), was -1.1%. Both banks and brokers were red
by -1.7% and -2.2% respectively. The
(
$RLX.X |
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PowerRating) declined 1.4%, but the
leader in the doghouse was the
(
$BTK.X |
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PowerRating), the biotech index, at -3.0% and
is again oversold.
The NDX 100 has declined
4.5% in the past four days, wiping out the one-day gain of 4.2% on April 16, so
I guess that’s a good enough reason as any for an intraday reflex to the upside. The
futures are pre-market green, but it’s only 7:30 a.m. ET. The SPX has lost 1.7%
in four days vs. the one-day gain of 2.3%. The index closed at 1107.83 in a
six-bar closing range on your five-minute chart and gets going above 1108.41. I
use 1100 as my trouble level if it breaks yesterday’s 1105.62 low. If we get an
intraday reflex up, it can quickly get to the 1116-1120 level.
The
(
DIA |
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PowerRating) closed at
101.38, right on the 200-day EMA of 101.25. It gets going above the closing
range high of 101.52. Good reward to risk using the 200-day EMA as your stop. If
we go south below the 200-day EMA, then that becomes your upside pivot. Lowest
common denominator entries are the best form of risk management.Â
There is some more chip
noise this morning about the bottom having been seen, book-to-bill, etc. Here we go again. Looking
at the five-minute chart from yesterday, I see that was anticipated as stocks
like
(
NVLS |
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PowerRating),
(
KLAC |
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PowerRating),
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INTC |
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PowerRating),
(
AMAT |
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PowerRating), and others all had
last-hour rallies from +1.5% to +2.2%. As I complete this text, I see INTC had
traded up to 30.45 vs. a 4:00 p.m. ET close of 30.06.
After the three-day
pullback, semis like NVLS at the 20-day EMA and KLAC at the 50-day EMA set up.
But in reality, it looks like there will be an up opening in the semis, so
instead of any trade-through entries, you go to the intraday charts. Stocks like
NVLS and KLAC are rangebound, and yesterday’s late-afternoon bounce was right
off the bottom of the range. That’s how trading-range markets must be handled.
It’s not about momentum until the range gets resolved.Â
Stocks
Today
Daily stock setups today:
If the semis stay green, look at
(
KLAC |
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PowerRating),
(
NVLS |
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PowerRating),
(
TXN |
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PowerRating), which is
right at the 200-day EMA,
(
AMAT |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
MU |
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Chart |
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PowerRating), which has demonstrated some
buying pressure recently.Â
Also, other stocks:
(
TMCS |
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PowerRating),
(
FRX |
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PowerRating),
(
CCR |
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PowerRating),
(
WHR |
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PowerRating), and if they come for some of the
biotechs, look at
(
IDPH |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating).Â
As I finish this, the SPX
is back to even, the Nasdaq -4, and Dow futures +5. The semis are still
pre-market green.Â
Have a good trading day.
Five-minute chart of
Monday’s SPX with 8-, 20-,
60- and 260-period
EMAs
Five-minute chart of
Monday’s NYSE TICKS
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