Are We Having Fun Yet?
Are we having fun yet? I’m
not quite sure how to start today except to say "What a great trader’s
market". Take yesterday, as we indeed got two picture-perfect
three-minute bounces — the first stalling on the 13 and the second combining
with a cross on the 13 to power up to the 60 — as well as the late-day hourly
short continuation trigger I spoke of in yesterday’s
column where you could have literally made your keep for the month. And school
students knowing our 3/13/60 rhythm which was in full force yesterday would have
cleaned up.
At the risk of stating what I hope is extremely
obvious by now, take a look at the hourly charts below and see where that 5-MA
turned. Will it turn every time? Of course not. But in terms of skewing
probability over time and with the hourly angled as it was combined with a
low-risk short trigger, it was there for the taking.
Thus far today, both the Qs and SPYs — along with their respective E-Minis —
have had nice three-minute moves into the 13-minute and hourly headwinds off of
the early gap and trap into the lower Bollinger Bands, while shorts trading the
latter time frames have had a few decent continuation trades. Tech is showing
some relative strength (I know that sounds like an oxymoron, but I just print
what I see), even with the
(
$SOX.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) digging an even deeper yearly
hole.
Now that the expected intraday and interday sequence has played out nicely,
shorts at these levels will become more risky as volatility increases (VIX.X
+4.16 to 45.05 as we go to press) and as we become more oversold and the
reward/risk begins to skew toward bounce plays, the longer we plummet. Inverse
cup shorts from Tuesday
should have covered portions by now with tight trailing stops on remaining
shares.
QQQ
Thursday September
19, 2002 11:15 A.M. ET
SPY
Moving Avg
Legend: 5MA
15MA 60-Min
15MA
See School
and Video
for Setups and Methodologies
Good Trading.
P.S. Some still
didn’t get the "department of redundancy department" comment from
yesterday, so I thought I’d repeat it yet one more time … again.