As Ornery As Ever
Missed all of last
week…so went through books twice on the weekend. After
hearing every strategist on Wall
Street this weekend declaring that they were bullish
as can be, I thought I would find a ton of great charts. After hearing
many declarations about the start of
the next TECH bull market, thought I would
find a ton of TECH leadership. NOT! I hate to be as ornery as ever, but
it just continues to amaze…no…it
continues to baffle me as to how the same
people, day after day, week after week, can be so wrong about the markets
and be allowed on national TV. Does anyone ever check track records?
In fact, if you read “Letters to the
Editor” in Barron’s this weekend, you can read
a letter from a reader taking issue with a Barron’s reporter who stated
that a certain newsletter writer was
bearish at the top in 2000 when in fact, he
told subscribers to buy the QQQ about 50-60 points ago. This is just a
lesson on why I became a
technician…and not to listen to anything you hear.
There is no predicting here…no target
prices…no telling you how and where things
should be at the end of the year. So, when you hear one of these Dionne
Warwick wannabes telling you that now is the time, please find out
what he or she said at important
turns in the markets, and then you can listen.
That leads me to today’s market. Just stunning.
Two Wednesdays ago, doldrums was
the key word. I thought there was no getting this market going again.
Yes, I thought it could bounce…but I didn’t
have a clue as to how good the move
would be. BUT…and that’s a big but, I don’t think a lot has changed.
In fact, I found nothing but short
setups in TECHNOLOGY. What? How can that
be? Wasn’t the Nasdaq just up double
digits in less than 10 days? Didn’t the markets
follow through? The answer to those questions is yes. The problem is
that most TECH names were destroyed
and are now just starting to repair the damage.
So…here is a lesson for today. It’s called the “Don’t Believe
Anything Gary Says” lesson. The lesson is to
take time out and look at all these
names, and you decide for yourself.
…and this list does not include all the BIOTECH
names that look like a bungee
jump.
All these stocks — some pretty big and
influential –tell me TECH is not the
place to be. There can be upside testing, but the technical condition is
not even close to looking like a
strong bottom. Continue to go elsewhere
where you can find stocks breaking out of long, sound bases. It’s as
simple as that.
Look how Kohl’s Corp.
(
KSS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) powered out on volume Friday.
Look how Mohawk
Industries
(
MHK |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) is trying to break out again.
Look how mega-cap 3M
(
MMM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) moved out as soon as the Dow started to
rally. Great relative
strength vs. its peers.
One day, TECH may set up this way. Then again,
the CUBS may be in the World Series.
Sorry Chicago fans. I would have said it about the Red Sox, but they
are in first place right now. Then
again, it’s not October yet.