Choppy December
There
was a divergence in volume yesterday, as
the NYSE volume was right on its average at 1.2 billion, with breadth at -181,
and a volume ratio of 42. The SPX
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$SPX.X |
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to 1129.90. The SPX will see some selling trading below 1125.51, or 113 on the
(
SPY |
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PowerRating)s. The .50 retracement to the May high is 112.94. The 50-day EMA on the
SPY is 112.12, which is just above the top of the range it broke out from on
Nov. 6, which is about the 111.15 level. If the SPX has a shallow correction, it
will probably decline to the 1080 or 1054 levels, which are the .38 to .50
retracements to the September low. That is 108.08 to 105.35 on the SPYs.
The Nasdaq traded less
than 85% of its average volume. The NDX
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$NDX.X |
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(
$SOX.X |
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(
$OSX.X |
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(
SLB |
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entry. With all that’s going on over there, the oil service stocks have to be in
your daily plan, waiting to hitch a ride if the Generals push the envelope. The
(
QQQ |
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the .618 RT up at 42.33. The 20-day EMA is 38.58.
December has more
cross-currents than we need with the war, Middle East, recession, earnings
pre-announcements coming up, and layoff news on a daily basis. On the other
side, we have had an excellent rally, as the Generals have put the discount
mechanism to work with perception looking past the obvious negative news. Time
will tell.Â
To me, it means a choppy
December news-oriented market with daily news swings and the market easily
controlled by the futures players. Unless there is an overt war act against us
on US soil, the government and Generals will try and hold the major indices into
year-end. I would prefer to see a shallow down first to the 1080-1050 level on
the SPX which would invite stronger buying into year-end, especially in the
semis and biotechs.
The biotechs have led and
have already retraced .786 to the June high. Be looking for a retracement to the
50- and 200-day EMAs before you find more long setups.
Stocks
Today
In the energies,
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BJS |
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HAL |
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SLB |
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Other stocks:
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LTR |
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NOC |
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THQI |
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THC |
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BCC |
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JNJ |
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WLP |
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SAP |
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SYMC |
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FFIV |
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EDS |
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In the semis,
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MU |
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KLAC |
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NVDA |
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ISIL |
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(
RFMD |
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On the short side, if the
biotechs are to continue to correct, look at the
(
BBH |
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of 133.46, and again below 133.10. Also,
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HGSI |
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(
CHIR |
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ENZN |
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Have a good trading day.
Five-minute chart of
Monday’s SPX with 8-, 20-,
60- and 260-period
EMAs
Five-minute chart of
Monday’s NYSE TICKS
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