Commodities Bull Market Rages On, Here Are The Leaders

The combination of a widening
trade deficit and falling consumer sentiment drove bond prices higher and stock
futures lower.
The Commerce Department
reported the trade deficit grew by 6.1% in June to $-58.8 Bln. The Labor
Department reported that import prices rose, while exports were flat in June. US
oil imports rose to $14.6 Bln in June. The decline in consumer sentiment was the
first since May and larger than expected.

The bond market rally ended a 6-week decline.
European Government bonds recorded their biggest weekly gain in two months after
the US data was released. The yield spread between European and US treasuries is
1%, the highest since 2000. The average has been 0.39% for the past 10-years and
was flat as recently as September 2004.

Prices rose across the yield curve,
September 10yr T-Note +0.49%, 5yr T-Note +0.31% and 2yr T-Note
+0.09%.

Crude Oil continued to get the most attention but
once again the best percentage gainers in the energy complex were Unleaded and
Natural Gas. October Crude Oil +0.93% closed above $67, September
Harbor
Unleaded +2.82% closed above $2 for the first time and October
Natural Gas +3.08 continued to outperform. All 3 were highlighted
again last night in the

TradingMarkets.com Momentum 5 List
.

September Copper +1.76% hit a new record
high. Despite this week’s rise in stockpiles, economic data showed that total
supply is equivalent to one day’s global consumption.

In the grains, December Corn -2,.84% and
Wheat -1.54% were both under pressure. February Pork Bellies
+2.45%, a popular commodity in the TM sales department, closed limit up (200
points) today.

December Cocoa -0.86% hit another contract
low, while December Coffee -1.79% and Cotton -1.69% both closed lower.


Economic News

Import And Export Prices:

Import Prices, M/M Change – Actual 1.1% Consensus 0.8%

Export Prices, M/M Change – Actual 0.1% Consensus N/A

International Trade:

Trade Balance – Actual $-58.8 B Consensus $-57.5 B

Consumer Sentiment:

Actual 92.7 Consensus 96.0

Ashton Dorkins

ashtond@tradingmarkets.com