Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Releases Today at 10:00 a.m. EST
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Announcement:
The Conference Board Confidence Index is due to release in the U.S. on Monday, June 23rd at 10:00 a.m. EST.
Description:
Normally, the Conference Board Confidence Index would have little impact on financial markets. However, the June numbers may actually see more fanfare than usual. Overall, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index measures expectations of economic conditions through the spending habits of citizens. Within the report, one of the most important items to note is the expectations component, which attempts to predict six months of future spending. What’s more, the six month moving average often is a clear indicator – albeit a lagging indicator – of the GDP growth from a consumer standpoint.
Trader Take:
Most likely, the June reading will show a slight uptick in confidence; however, it would be unlikely that the gain will lean substantially toward the upside. The May reading came in at 57.2, while the mean estimate for June is 56.5. A number under 56.5 would indicate confidence below 15 year lows. With so much dismal news over the past few months, markets will be looking for a slight uptick to show any sign of continued recovery for the U.S.; however, don’t be shocked if it doesn’t surface at this time.
While the expectations component of the report showed a slight uptick from 49.4 in March to 50.0, ground was lost in May, with the report posting the lowest ever value of 45.7.
It’s true the market doesn’t usually pay too much attention to consumer confidence. However, an unusually low reading in Tuesday’s report could actually be bullish for the U.S. dollar, as savvy traders infer a capitulatory bottom, and as the general public begins to throw in the towel.
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