Could Buying Financial Sector Stocks Be Like Putting Money In The Bank?
Earlier this week the Nasdaq
rallied 10-1/2%, and it looked like the worst might be behind us. Ideally, we
would hold on to the bulk of those gains, though a mild sell off and rally,
typical of a backing-and-filling pattern, would indeed signal that we were back
on track. However, the very next day, it was back to selling pressure and lower
prices, as the profit warning from Apple Computer
(
AAPL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) came at the
worst possible moment.
The good news (although it didn’t seem like good news early last night), is
that the subsequent warnings from Intel
(
INTC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and Motorola
(
MOT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
were not greeted with panic selling, but quick, sustained and strong buying. As
of this writing (12:30 pm CST) MOT is up 1 3/8 and INTC is up 1 3/4.
Having said all that, we determined that our exposure in the tech sector
warranted some diversification. We focused on the Financial sector, as that
group is both battered and we believe, likely to react positively to the Fed
meeting on December 19.
The recent announcement by Bank of America
(
BAC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) that fourth-quarter
profits would fall short of expectations, followed by Bank One’s
(
ONE |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
troubled loan announcement, caused sell offs that we believe could signal a
bottom for the sector. With BAC and Chase Manhattan Corp.
(
CMB |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
down over 20% already, we see much more upside than downside from here.
In CMB, many are thinking of buying the January 2002 35 calls for $10 and selling the March
45 calls for 2. Total extrinsic call premium is just $5, as CMB is trading for
$40. They’ll capture 40% of that extrinsic value with the sale of the March 45 call
and will be sitting in a bullish position to take advantage of a first-quarter rate cut by the Fed.
If CMB is unchanged in March, the LEAP will have decayed by 3/4, the 45 is
worthless, so they’ll keep the $2 premium, where they’ll net profit by 1 1/4. At 45,
the LEAP would have increased in value to $13, a profit of $3, the 45 is still
worthless, so they’ll keep the $2 premium for the 45 call, and net $5 on their $8
investment.