Daily Forex Market Commentary
Soft US data on Tuesday forced the dollar to surrender its early gains. The Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence fell to 104.0 in April from 108.2 in March. Also very weak were sales of existing homes, which fell 8.1 percent in March. The euro hit a new high for the uptrend, but the artificially strong pound remained under stop-loss pressure. Following some consolidation today, the dollar should attempt to recover.
Euro/dollar
The overbought euro/dollar failed to break below 1.3640 and the soft US data helped it vault to a new high for its uptrend. Following another move up today, the pair should probe lower.
Initial resistance is at 1.3676. Above 1.3718, the pair has distant resistance is at 1.3805.
Immediate support is at 1.3605. However, only a break below 1.3540 would signal the end of the upmove. Good support follows at 1.3470. Distant support is at 1.3390.
Oscillators are edging up.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen is lacking much direction these days, as it’s been flipping around the same range for three days. Expect more consolidation today.
Strong support remains at 118.25 by a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75.
Below 117.60, support is seen at 116.85, from a 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35.
Initial resistance is at 118.75. Above 119.00, strong resistance remains at 119.65 from a 50-point pivot that targets 119.15 and 120.15.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell to a one-week low on Tuesday as it probed again the sub-$2 area. The weak US data helped this pair trim losses, but it’s still up on hot air and should cool soon. If it declines, the slide could be aggressive.
Immediate support is at 1.9950. Below 1.9925, strong support follows at 1.9855.
Initial resistance is at 2.0040. The next level is 2.0100. Next cap is seen between 2.0140 and 2.0155. If this area breaks, the pound would likely take attack a Gann level at 2.0200.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc had a very heavy closing on Tuesday but held (barely) above last week’s four-month low of 1.2000. It looks heavy still, but sell it only on a confirmation
It has immediate and very significant support at 1.1980 from a trendline rising since January 2005 and only an aggressive move beneath it would signal a sustained decline. There is a key level at 1.1945. Dollar/Swiss franc then has strong support at 1.1885.
Initial resistance is at 1.2060. A confirmation that the slide is over would come today only from a break above the resistance at 1.2120. Further resistance comes at 1.2200. Distant resistance is at 1.2255.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish
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