Daytrading Mode
What Monday’s Action Tells
You
The market action was simply the gap opening
and
the Generals holding price for the remainder of the session. The SPX
(
$SPX.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) traded into the 1120 – 1122 zone by 11:00 a.m. ET and stayed
there until a jiggle attempt at new intraday highs, but couldn’t make it
past
the 1124 level and closed at 1122.47, +1.3% on the day. So, I say good job,
Generals. The Dow
(
$INDU |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) was +1.1%, the Nasdaq
(
$COMPQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) at
1993
+1.7% and the
(
QQQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)s +1.7%.
NYSE volume was below its recent average,
trading 1.35 billion shares, but with 1.18 billion up and just 166 million
down
for a volume ratio of 88 and breadth very positive at +1538. The primary
sectors
were led by the CYC at +1.8%, which traded between +1.8% – 2.0% all day. The
brokers (XBD) was +1.6%, while the semis dropped off to +1.1% after trading
at
+2.0% through mid-day. The
(
OIH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) was the only primary sector red
at -0.3%.
I have included the daily charts with a
linear
regression trendline of the QQQ and Nasdaq to highlight the current zone of
contention. The QQQs hit an intraday high of 35.96, which is the 50-day EMA
and
then faded to 35.61, the top of the now minor support at the three tops from
yesterday’s commentary. There was a little 10-minute mark-up into the close
to
35.85. As you can see on the chart, there is also the resistance at the 36
zone,
which is the previous breakout trading range top, and then there is the
upper
channel line at about 36.50.
Tuesday 3/23 |
Wednesday 3/24 |
Thursday 3/25 |
Friday 3/26 |
Monday 3/29 |
|
Index |
|||||
SPX |
|||||
High |
1101.52 | 1098.39 | 1110.38 | 1115.27 | 1124.37 |
Low |
1091.57 | 1087.06 | 1091.33 | 1106.13 | 1108.06 |
Close |
1093.90 | 1091.32 | 1109.28 | 1108.20 | 1122.47 |
% |
-0.1 | -0.2 | +1.6 | -0.1 | +1.3 |
Range |
10 | 11.3 | 19.1 | 9.1 | 16.3 |
% Range |
23 | 38 | 94 | 23 | 88 |
INDU |
10064 | 10048 | 10219 | 10213 | 10330 |
% |
-.01 | -0.2 | +1.7 | -.06 | +1.1 |
Nasdaq |
1902 | 1909 | 1967 | 1960 | 1993 |
% |
-0.4 | +0.4 | +3.0 | -0.4 | +1.7 |
QQQ |
34.02 | 34.41 | 35.34 | 35.22 | 35.85 |
% |
-0.8 | +1.1 | +2.7 | -0.3 | +1.8 |
NYSE |
|||||
T. VOL |
1.44 | 1.50 | 1.48 | 1.32 | 1.35 |
U. VOL |
737 | 448 | 1.25 | 734 | 1.18 |
D. VOL |
679 | 1.02 | 215 | 571 | 166 |
VR |
52 | 31 | 85 | 56 | 88 |
4 MA |
32 | 29 | 44 | 56 | 65 |
5 RSI |
25 | 24 | 52 | 66 | 65 |
ADV |
1866 | 1148 | 2358 | 1789 | 2428 |
DEC |
1399 | 2098 | 911 | 1499 | 890 |
A-D |
+467 | -950 | +1447 | +290 | +1538 |
4 MA |
-613 | -760 | -211 | +313 | +581 |
SECTORS |
|||||
SMH |
-0.2 | +2.0 | +4.0 | -0.9 | +1.1 |
BKX |
-.05 | -0.5 | +1.3 | -0.2 | +1.5 |
XBD |
-0.1 | -1.3 | +2.5 | +1.4 | +1.6 |
RTH |
-0.3 | +0.3 | +2.3 | -0.3 | +1.2 |
CYC |
+0.2 | -0.4 | +2.2 | +0.3 | +1.8 |
PPH |
+0.6 | -0.8 | +0.7 | +0.1 | +1.4 |
OIH |
-1.4 | -3.0 | +0.8 | +1.2 | -0.3 |
BBH |
-1.9 | +1.1 | +2.0 | -1.5 | +2.1 |
TLT |
+0.2 | -.07 | -0.4 | -1.1 | -0.7 |
XAU |
+0.7 | -2.4 | +2.6 | +1.0 | +0.9 |
^next^
For Active
Traders
The Nasdaq hit a 1996 intraday high vs. its
1999
50-day EMA and the 2000 resistance line you see across the top of the
trading
range. There was also an upper channel line at about 2025. These are zones
where
you would also take the intraday short setups, but you must weigh the fact
that
Tuesday and Wednesday are the last two days of the quarter, and maybe some
of
that $70 billion the Generals took in during January and February gets put
to
work in the first few days of April. If you take them, keep a tight
stop.
Yesterday didn’t offer any real gap pullbacks
or
tradable retracements as TRIN was below 40 for most of the day, closing at
36.
The SPX closed at 1122.47 with the 50-day EMA at 1121.96, so that is an
early
line. Also, there is today’s initial resistance at 1125, the .50 retracement
to
1163 and another resistance through 1127. There is a three-line intraday
zone
based on yesterday’s closing prices from 1113.64 – 1110.66.
The QQQs gave you a chance yesterday at the
36
resistance line and 50-day EMA to take profits of over 5.0% in four days on
this
reflex off the 200-day EMA, along with the other confluence. If you didn’t
buy
them initially, or the SMHs, which were our primary focus because of that
zone,
then you’ve already missed the best entry level. This corner has no interest
in
buying a move above 36 from a position standpoint. It is now just trailing
stops
below each higher high on the balance of any naked long QQQs and SMHs. Also,
it
is a daytrade-mode only now while anticipating the next position sell
opportunity.
There is infinitely more risk right now
buying
momentum or waiting for the infamous consensus confirmation than there is
taking
a good oversold reversal entry at a key zone with tight stops. You have
politicians lying through their teeth making the corporate governance
problems
look like child’s play, and there is an increasing terrorist fear factor,
and
rightly so, that has a fast trigger. That means to me that entry at the
lowest
common denominator is very important.
Have a good trading day,
Kevin Haggerty
