Dollar Modestly Higher After GDP Revision
Dollar edges higher across the board after upward revision of Q4 GDP. Growth was revised up from 2.2% to 2.5% in the final print of US Q4 GDP. Price index was kept unchanged at 1.7% while personal consumption remained at 4.2%. However, core PCE was revised slightly lower to 1.8%. Note that the yen, and to a lesser extent, the swissy, reacts more to the news on the background that higher stock open is anticipated today after the data. Elsewhere, the rise in dollar is modest.
Released earlier, Germany unemployment rate fall further from 9.3% to 9.2% in Feb, lowest in 5 years, suggesting that labor market in Germany continues to improve. UK CBI distributive trade index rose more to 32 instead in Mar of falling from 19 to 15. Swiss government revised its GDP forecasts for 2007 upward to 2.0%. But reactions to these news were muted.
Some important economic data will be released in the coming Asian session, including New Zealand GDP and Japan’s CPI, household spending, industrial output and unemployment rate.
USD/CHF
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2103; (P) 1.2140; (R1) 1.2199;
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USD/CHF recovers further in early US session. As discussed before, with 4 hours MACD staying above signal line, consolidation from 1.2029 is still in progress. At this point, further recovery cannot be ruled out. But still, upside is expected to be limited by 1.2228/30 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.2354 to 1.2029 at 1.2230, 38.2% retracement of 1.2550 to 1.2029 at 1.2228) and bring decline resumption.
On the downside, a break below 1.2075 is needed to turn intraday bias back to the downside and bring retest of 1.2029 cluster support (78.6% retracement of 1.1879 to 1.2571 at 1.2027) first and break is needed to confirm recent decline has resumed for next downside target of 1.1879 support (06 low).
In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains bearish with USD/CHF staying below both 55 days EMA and 55 weeks EMA. Daily and weekly MACD are staying negative, supporting this view too. The preferred interpretation at this point is that the whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in progress with the first move from 1.3283 finished with three waves down to 1.1919. Subsequent rebound to 1.2768 was the interim correction nand price actions from there represent resumption of such down trend. Sustained break of 1.1878 will add more credence to this view and bring further medium term weakness towards 100% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2768 at 1.1404.
However, note that USD/CHF is still bounded in wide range of 1.1878 to 1.2768. A rebound to above 1.2354 resistance will dampen this view and indicate that the fall from 1.2571 has completed after meeting 1.2027 fibo support. Another rise could then be seen to retest this high and then the upper end of the range at 1.2768.
Read full report (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY) here.
Shing-Ip Tsui is the founder and CEO of
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