Don’t Expect It, But React To It
The
averages were flat, with the NDX 100
(
NDX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
+0.2%, and the S&P 500
(
SPX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) +0.4%. Total volume still managed to top 1
billion, breadth was excellent at +1269 advancers over decliners, the volume
ratio at 67 and institutional blocks just over 20,000. Most significant is that
NYSE stocks over their 200-day moving average has now increased to 59% from 49%
just two weeks ago.
This was a positive
divergence from the S&P 500 which hit a 1254 low on 12/21. The bounce off
the 2228 Fib alert zone is now +15% low to high in just five days, while the SPX
has rallied +6.5% from 1254 to yesterday’s high of 1336. Year to date, we have
seen the NDX 100 fall 55% from the high of 4816 to 2175.Â
Those buy-and-holders who
held an NDX-equivalent fund because they had chased 1999’s performance, were
down 41% at a minimum from the 12/31/99 close of 3708 to the 2175 low. The last
five days have cut off 15% of that loss. From the 3708 close to yesterday’s 2465
close, the NDX 100 is -34% YTD. The
S&P 500 index players, which includes many closet index funds, watched a
1469 12/31/99 close drop 14.6% to the 1254 low, and after the five-day rally the
loss is now single digits at -9.2%.
Yesterday’s early up was
all you needed to make your day, as there were some good trade-through entries
and multipoint moves. The star of the game for the fourth day in a row was
(
JNPR |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating). After a trade-through entry, it ran 10 points to a 139 7/8 high.
There were also excellent trades in
(
AMCC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
CIEN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
BEAS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
along with some medium pops in
(
EMC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
MLNM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
The semis and biotechs
essentially took the day off, as they digested their recent strong gains. As for
today, if you’re trading, don’t expect anything but be ready to react if it is
given to you. There could be program action today, but the Generals probably
won’t be aggressively marking anything up today as the SEC frowns on unusual
last-day activity. I am quite positive that the Generals will be holding the
line on their key stocks so they don’t go any lower.
face=”arial, helvetica”>(March Futures) | ||
Fair | size=2>Buy | size=2>Sell |
16.75 | Â 18.05Â | Â 15.45 |
Pattern
Setups
Stocks today: I would again
focus on the semis, chosen ones, and biotechs. Scroll your intraday charts for
setups. Also, be alert for Slim Jims which could be explosive today if there is
program action or a little help from the Generals.
In the chosen ones, look to
(
AMCC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
CIEN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
MERQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
CMVT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
CHKP |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
JNPR |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
In the semis,
(
TXN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
MU |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
MXIM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
LLTC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
TER |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
ADI |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
Biotechs:
(
AMGN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
MLNM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
DNA |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), and
(
AFFX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) (above Tuesday’s high).
Have a good trading day.
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