Dow Makes An Effort
Now let me get this
straight. Jeff Bezos of Amazon.com comes out this morning and says the company is doing
“better than
expected.” Specifically, or not so specifically, a first-quarter “pro forma” loss of 22
cents…and the market gets excited.Â
First off, each and every one of you needs to go and find out what “pro forma”
means. In plain English, it’s like opening a lemonade stand and not including the cost of
lemons. It’s like borrowing money to buy machinery and not including the interest
expense. It’s…well, it’s a joke.Â
And the fact that it even received an upgrade today boggles my
mind. Hey, just one man’s opinion. I don’t think I would let Mr. Bezos handle my checkbook.Â
I was on a national TV show last week. Kind of a “bull-and-bear”
debate. I was the bear. Duh! Or was I? I wanted to make a distinction between myself and
others. After reading through all of my reports for the past few months, I realized how negative I
sounded. Please make sure you understand that I am not bearish. It is the market that is
bearish. Yes, it is all the market’s fault.
I am super-flexible about what happens every day. I have no opinion of an eventual outcome
three months from now, six months… When the market decides to show any signs of
strength, I will gladly start building a list of potential leaders. I have no
preconceived notions about the economy, earnings, revenues, recessions or the Yankees winning the World Series.
The only notion I have is that when things start up again, it will be easy for me to
identify. You cannot hide institutional buying — just like you couldn’t hide the
selling. I also know when the ultimate bottom is put in, it will happen while there is all kinds of bad news still coming out.
The market dictates policy…not opinion!
As for right now, eh! Thursday’s action did not sway me one way or another. I would have loved to have seen big volume for such a big
move. I will just say that the Dow is putting in an effort here…but the Dow is 30
stocks. It also runs into a brick wall at around 10,200 to 10,300.
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 still have a ton of damage to
repair. This will only resolve itself over time, not in one day.
No breakouts, no excitement, just a lot of cash and damn glad to be there.
One more success lesson: Did you see Tiger Woods’ eyes during the Masters? That is passion, my
friends. Passion breeds success. In anything you do in life, do it with passion.
Watch what happens next!