Expanded Range Possible Today
Stock
index futures closed out last week with another round of light-volume
gains after the week of mourning for former President Reagan pretty much subdued
most of the trading activity.
The
September SP 500 futures closed Thursday’s session with a gain of +5.25 points,
and finished the week with a gain of +13.50 points. Volume in the ES was
estimated at 366,761 contracts, well below the daily average. On a weekly
basis, the ES was able to close higher for the 3rd week in a row, but the
downtrend is still intact absent of a close over 1150. Looking at the daily
chart, the ES posted an inside NR7 day with a lower close, so we should get an
expanded range (don’t get your hopes up) on Monday or Tuesday.
^next^
September
bonds (ZB) finished off an uneventful week continuing to consolidate under the
10-day and 20-day MAs. The Semiconductor Index (SOX) finished the week right
where it started, to settle on its 10-week MA. However, the decline on high
volume followed by the advance on declining volume suggests that lower prices
are ahead.
Looking
ahead this week, the economic calendar heats up again with May Retail Sales on
Monday, the May CPI and Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on
Tuesday, Industrial Production on Wednesday, and May Leading Indicators on
Thursday. Tech bellwether Oracle (ORCL) will post its earnings and guidance
after the close on Tuesday. I’m not expecting the markets to trade straight up
or down from here, and to remain in the same light-volume ranges until at least
the June 30th FOMC meeting and the first rate hike are out of the way.  Â
Please feel free to email me with any questions
you might have, and have a great trading week!