FOMC Drill
The
SPX
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$SPX.X |
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an intraday high of 1173.94 by the 1:50 p.m. bar in advance of the FOMC circus
with the TV suits as the ringmasters. When the drill about nothing started, the
SPX quickly traded down to 1166.70, then back up to 1172.28 in just three bars.
It then traded down to 1166.27 by 3:15 p.m. It rallied into the close at
1170.29, or +0.4% on the day. The Nintendo players were banging on the keys up
and down, but we decided to have a putting contest in the office rather than go
to the drill.
NYSE volume picked up to
about average at 1.25 billion, a volume ratio of 58, and breadth +287. The
Nasdaq had lighter relative volume at 1.5 billion shares, which is about 16%
below average and a volume ratio of 49.
The
(
SPY |
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117.45 as traders wait for a fourth-time-through breakout of 118, which is the
.618 retracement to the 131.70 May 22 high, and also the resistance where the
SPYs broke down to the September lows. Everyone is looking at the same thing, so
if you get an intraday long setup below 118, you take it with your regular stop
procedure. If it goes, you are there. But if not, it’s just another normal
intraday setup that you got stopped out on.
If the Generals break it out as we
approach quarter’s end, then the price objective would be the .707 retracement
at 120.60 or the .786 at 123.59. That scenario is cute, and also textbook, but
as you should know, it ain’t that easy. Be very alert for a pump-and-dump move
above and then below 118. Adhere to your intraday trend procedures on your
position. That will keep you in or out when you should be. Don’t play mind games
with the trade, and for sure, keep the damn TV turned off while you trade.
The Nasdaq and NDX
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$NDX.X |
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is to be any sustained move in the SPX and DJX over the next two weeks.
Stocks
Today
Daily chart setups are
thin, as only nine NDX 100 stocks closed in the top 25% of their range. Not
exactly a show of buying pressure. That puts us in a position of waiting for the
buying/selling pressure to rear its head on the intraday charts, which happens
to be the luxury of the daytrader.
We start out today with
the futures early red. We’ve got an economic report this morning.
The following stocks set
up on the long side:
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TXT |
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(
DOW |
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(
PD |
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NAV |
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CSX |
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(
RIG |
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(
SII |
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(
DO |
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GD |
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(
ATK |
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ESI |
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SYMC |
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also in the semis, I’d focus on
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KLAC |
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MCHP |
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(
AMAT |
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(
BRKS |
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PowerRating).
On the shortside because
of the volatility and because we’re coming into quarter’s end, I’d still focus
on the index proxies and the sector proxies.
Have a good trading day.
Five-minute chart of
Tuesday’s SPX with 8-, 20-,
60- and 260-period
EMAs
Five-minute chart of
Tuesday’s NYSE TICKS
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Additional
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